Diamondbacks vs Reds betting preview: Why one pitcher made Cincinnati go five innings
We’re starting to head into the dog days of summer, and that means we’re getting stuck into baseball. Baseball is the sport that usually builds my savings during football seasons, and I intend to do that again here. Looking to cash in here as the Arizona Diamondbacks play the Reds.
The Diamondbacks were expected to have a down year, but I don’t think anyone told them that. It’s not like they’re world beaters. They are just 35-35 this season, and may only compete for the wild card if there is one. They are one of my teams to watch at the trade deadline because they have a lot of talent, but obviously not enough to compete with the Dodgers (who?). And they already have rumors about big players, like Ketel Marte, which is a problem that hurts his value, but also allows the public to accept the trade.
Andrew Abbott of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies in Philadelphia on May 20, 2026. (Matt Rourke/AP)
They will likely re-buy today’s starter, Zac Gallen. There were no takers last year, and even the free agent market was too small for Gallen. His numbers this year indicate that it probably won’t be a very competitive market for his services. He is 3-5 with a 5.43 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. He has been brutal on the road this season with an ERA north of seventh. He has allowed at least four earned runs in six of his last eight games. Cincinnati Reds hitters, however, are just 6 for 45 against him.
The Reds started the season hot, but have cooled off. This is a growing group, so the result is not surprising. I think they are still a few years away from truly competing with their team. However, they made the playoffs last season. If they can get some of their games to step up, they should have a strong chance this year. They are 33-36, so another team that could pick up almost any option at the trade deadline.
Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen throws against the Texas Rangers during the first inning of Game 1 of the World Series in Arlington, Texas, on Oct. 27, 2023. (Brynn Anderson/AP)
Today they look to clinch the series as they send in Andrew Abbott. He didn’t have a great season, but he has decent stuff. He is 4-4 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He has been worse at home than on the road, pitching to a 5.15 ERA. However, unlike Gallen who has struggled of late, Abbott has looked good. He has three straight quality starts and has allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight straight outings. Diamondback hitters performed well against him, going 15-for-43 over their career high.
The publications seem to think that this should be a toss up based on how they made money. I can understand it to some extent. The better offense is probably the Diamondbacks, but the better pitcher is on the Reds side. I tend to think there is better value betting on the pitcher than betting on the offense.
Andrew Abbott of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies in Philadelphia on May 20, 2026. (Matt Rourke/AP)
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Gallen was terrible, so even if there is a better offense, the opposing offense is growing again. Perhaps the easiest solution is to take charge and move on. I don’t hate the look if you choose to take it, but I’m going to shorten the game and focus on the time Gallen and Abbott should have. I gave the Reds five innings.
