Sandy Alcantara’s leadoff hitter makes the Marlins a smart moneyline bet against the Rockies
Baseball is one of those sports where anything is possible. Any day a bad team can beat a powerhouse. I always encourage bettors to be very careful when playing big favorites. Just because the Cy Young winner is on the mound doesn’t mean we should automatically bet. Obviously, it gives you a better chance of winning, but it doesn’t guarantee anything. I think we have one good chance on the mound today as the Miami Marlins play the Colorado Rockies.
The Marlins have done a solid job this season to make it all work. Despite being in a very popular market, the club often avoids paying players. They are always renovating and don’t really want to invest in players. That doesn’t mean they don’t have talent on the roster. Actually, it’s the opposite. They have a lot of good young talent, and if it clicks, they could make a run in the postseason. Overall, they are 44-40 this season, but need to learn how to win on the road after going 16-23 on the year.
Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara pitches during the fourth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California, on April 29, 2026. (Photos by Kiyoshi Mio/Imagn)
It will be interesting to see if the team keeps their players at the deadline, as they are over .500. Sandy Alcantara takes the mound tonight, and will be hanging around in trade talks regardless of how well the Marlins do. They don’t want to pay him, and he will look for a good contract. He is 8-4 this season with a 4.01 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. These aren’t his Cy Young numbers, but they’re respectable enough. He also showed flashes of his best form. He threw five straight quality starts for the Marlins, and his first start of the season was a seven-inning, one-hit shutout against the Rockies.
The Rockies are in the midst of yet another losing season. There are very few franchises in worse places than the Rockies and Los Angeles Angels. They’re about 20 games under .500 at 33-51, but they’ve been surprisingly good at home this year. They are 18-22 years old in Colorado. I like to see how they do at the trade deadline because there aren’t a ton of guys you want to go after, and many are often viewed as having inflated numbers to play at Coors Field. Their pitching is still an issue and the team has a 5.47 ERA.
Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara walks to the dugout before a baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds in Miami on April 7, 2026. (Lynne Sladky/AP)
Tonight, the team turns to Sean Sullivan, who is 0-2 with an 8.25 ERA in three starts. His debut wasn’t bad as he went three innings against the Athletics and allowed just two hits. He then allowed eight runs to the Chicago Cubs in four innings of work. His third start was against the Boston Red Sox, and this was the first start of his career in Colorado. He went five innings, allowing three earned runs on five hits and five walks. It probably had to be a very bad start for him.
The theme is one that I have mixed feelings about. 11.5 is a reasonable number, but I think it would be a sweat either way. Sullivan will give up some runs, but you never know if it will be three or ten. I think the Alcantara will only allow a few runs.
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Jake McCarthy of the Colorado Rockies returns to the dugout after hitting a home run off Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes in the first inning of a baseball game in Denver on June 20, 2026. (David Zalubowski/AP)
I think the best play is to catch the Marlins on the money line. If you look at the team, they are in strong form at the moment, having won four of their last five. I would advise against playing it if it goes higher than the -140 I took from it. We don’t get the best number yet, so just be careful. I also like Alcantara for 5+ strikeouts at -116.
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