Labor would be the largest party in the House of Commons but are 117 seats short of a majority if a general election were held now, according to the number of seats published by the UK Polling Report, as Prime Minister Andy Burnham has decided to leave the country before 2029.
This figure puts Labor at 209 MPs, 202 short of the 411 the party won in the 2024 general election, and 326 seats short of the required majority.
Reform UK will come second with 149 seats, the Conservatives with 133 and the Liberal Democrats with 72. The SNP will take 44 seats, the Greens seven and Plaid Cymru four.
The seat numbers are based on opinion polls which put the revolution at just under 25 per cent, Labor at 22 per cent and the Conservatives at 20 per cent.
So reforms lead to votes but not seats. The analysis of the UK Polling Report mentions that in the previous first round of the post, which rewarded Labor with a wide distribution of support.
Burnham, who entered Downing Street on July 20 as Britain’s seventh prime minister in a decade, was asked about the vote in an interview with the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.
He took out the early competition. “There is no national election,” he said. “And what I can tell you is that 20 million people voted for a document of promises. We are in a democratic country in Parliament, that’s what the people voted for, and I will respect that document.”
Pressed on whether that was a firm commitment, he said: “There is no early national election, I don’t think the people want it.
“Opinion polls may mean some people do, some people don’t. I just think what we need to do more is to get Britain to focus on getting the country back to where it should be, to make it work.”
The findings come less than a week after Premier Burnham. He became Labor leader on 17 July following the resignation of Sir Keir Starmer, and was appointed prime minister the following Monday.
Burnham said he would honor Labour’s 2024 manifesto commitments to not increase VAT, income tax or national insurance. “I stick to the manifesto and the promises it made,” he said before taking office. “So, I can’t make it clear, but there is a certain place in that electoral roll for tax travel.”
Removed VAT from electricity bills, a move many businesses are not eligible for.
Reform’s position in the election has caused companies to take a closer look at their economic plan. Liam Byrne, Labor chairman of the Commons Business Select Committee, said in December that businesses were right to be concerned about Reform UK.
“If Reform is going to be the leading rights group, then businesses will need to understand where they are coming from,” Byrne said. “Especially when the economic evidence is that officials, interventionist officials are a disaster for the economy.”
Reform deputy leader Richard Tice dismissed the claims, saying Labor and the Conservatives had “broken the public purse” and that his party would cut spending, borrowing costs and regulations before cutting taxes.
The general election is not expected until 2029. Burnham’s first budget is due out in the fall.
