The PHILIPPINES imported rice this year could reach 4.8 million metric tons (MMT), possibly matching or exceeding the high level recorded in 2024, as input costs rise and the coming El Niño threatens the domestic effect, Department of Agriculture (DA) said.
“Because of the pressure, it is possible that we will produce 4.8 million metric tons this year, or more,” Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel V. de Mesa told reporters on Tuesday.
He said the DA rice program has increased its import quota from the initial 4 MMT to ensure an 85-day end-of-year stock, which is the food security measure used by the agency.
In the first quarter alone, the Bureau of Plant Industry said the country imported 1.29 MMT of rice, which was 40.17% higher than the year-earlier shipment of 917,855 MT and 71.54% above the DA’s previous forecast of 750,000 MT.
The DA said higher import rates are needed to help stabilize local imports and prices amid a projected decline in rice production this year.
“There is pressure because we will see in the next investment… we have three surprises that we can expect,” said Mr. de Mesa, citing rising oil prices, higher fertilizer costs, and the impending El Niño.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Wednesday issued an El Niño warning, saying the phenomenon may develop in the coming months and begin in early June, bringing drier than normal conditions that may affect agriculture.
Mr. de Mesa said that higher fuel costs could increase the cost of land maintenance and farm operations, while fertilizer prices were pegged at P2,500 to P2,800 a bag.
The DA earlier cut its 2026 palay (unmilled rice) estimate to 19.87 MMT from the original target of 20.28 MMT following weak first quarter data.
“Due to the downgrade, their estimate has been lowered to 19.87 MMT,” said Mr. de Mesa.
The Philippine Statistics Authority reported that palay production in the first quarter may have decreased by 6.9% to 4.37 MMT from 4.7 MMT last year.
Mr. de Mesa said output could drop sharply if input costs remain high.
“19.87 MMT can be further reduced… [and] if the price of oil goes up to P150 to P190,” he said.
If the production falls to around 18.8 MMT, this will be a lower production of palay than the 17.62 MMT recorded in 2016.
The DA said it is also looking at the possible impact of El Niño, which could dampen production in the coming months.
Mr. de Mesa said the risk is most apparent in the second planting season, when yield losses can be high.
“In the second farming season, the best case is a 20% reduction in production; the worst is 50%,” he said.
“The projected yield for the second crop is 10 to 11 million tons… 20% of that is 1 to 2 million metric tons. If it halves, up to 5 million metric tons could be lost. That’s a worst case scenario.”
Meanwhile, the DA said it is promoting the use of biofertilizers as a cost-effective alternative to petroleum-based fuels to help reduce the impact of rising costs.
“Many farmers are now using different types of biofertilizer, [and] can reduce inorganic requirements [fertilizer] from 20% to 50%,” said Mr de Mesa.
He added that P500 million of the DA’s P1-billion Quick Response Fund, activated following the declaration of a national power emergency, will be used to purchase biofertilizers before the next farming season. – Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel
