No, COVID Vaccines Did Not Save Millions of Lives, Hospitalizations in the United States

One of the most pressing problems facing the scientific and medical communities is the loss of public trust in accepting their advice and/or recommendations. And it is because of their actions and their statements.

There are important examples of example books. Like the first part of the epidemic when they threw masks, saying they didn’t work to say that getting 80% of the public to wear them would end the epidemic in a week, to their claims that the lab leak was a racist theory, and all the way to ridiculous things like predicting the Super Bowl in Florida.

Or the big panic when states like Mississippi and Texas ended their mask mandate, or when the airline mandate was lifted…and nothing happened afterward.

But surely nothing is more likely to damage their confidence than strong claims that COVID vaccines have been able to stop infection and transmission. And one study and analysis from a group of experts with extensive knowledge on vaccines shows how dedicated they have been to mislead people to fit their political agendas and ideologies.

The COVID vaccine has not prevented more than 100 million cases in the United States

An analysis by highly informed academics published by the Commonwealth Fund reflects this trend. That the COVID vaccine was a miracle cure that prevented millions of cases and millions of deaths. But first, it is important to explain what the “Commonwealth Fund” is and how organizations like this serve a specific purpose.

Directly from their website they describe their mission as “promoting an efficient, equitable health care system that achieves better access, improved quality, and greater efficiency, especially for the most vulnerable people in society, including people of color, low-income people, and the uninsured.”

Equality, of course, means equal outcomes, not equal opportunities. It is the main employer of leftist organizations. And knowing that with this organization, you can already guess what the results of this study will be.

Indeed, their authors are an almost perfect example of an industrial NGO.

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• Megan C. Fitzpatrick, “Faculty, Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine.”
• Seyed M. Moghadas, “Professor of Applied Statistics and Computational Epidemiology, University of York”
• Abhishek Pandey, “Epidemiological Research Scientist (Infectious Diseases), Yale School of Public Health”
• Alison P. Galvani, “Founding Director, Yale Center for Infectious Disease Measurement and Analysis (CIDMA); Burnett and Stender Families Professor of Epidemiology, Yale School of Public Health”

It’s hard to imagine a better group of “experts” than the one working on NGO-sponsored research on COVID vaccines, right? That’s where the problem lies. The organization wants a specific result, “COVID vaccines have saved millions of lives and millions of cases,” and sure enough, they got exactly what they wanted. And boy oh boy is that score a doozy.

This crack team of highly experienced academics developed a model, of course, to estimate the effectiveness of the COVID vaccines in preventing infection, hospitalization, and death. With some amazing results.

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“From December 2020 to November 2022,” they wrote, “we estimate that the US COVID-19 vaccination program prevented more than 18.5 million additional hospitalizations and 3.2 million additional deaths.”

That’s impressive enough already, but it gets even better!

“Without vaccination, there would have been nearly 120 million cases of COVID-19,” they continue. “The vaccine program has also saved US $1.15 trillion (Confidence Period: $1.10 trillion–$1.19 trillion) (data not shown) in medical costs that would otherwise have been incurred.”

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It is very important to go into their claims, but to put it simply, these numbers are impossible. And they willfully ignored the data and evidence that made it impossible for them to get the result they and the Commonwealth Fund wanted to see.

Let’s take their most important claim, that there would have been “3.2 million deaths” from COVID if not for the COVID vaccines. Of course, there is a very simple way to refute that claim.

While the vaccines hit the market in December 2020, adoption was very limited until early 2021. That means almost all of the COVID-related deaths that occurred in 2020 were pre-vaccination, with less natural immunity in the population, and an earlier, worse strain that hadn’t changed to be less dangerous.

Well, the CDC estimates that about 350,000 people have died related to COVID in the United States. That started in February-March, so it wasn’t a perfect year, but it’s close. There is no possible outcome in a world where 350,000 people had died of COVID in the 10-11 months before natural vaccination and that it would have been an “extra” 3.2 millions in 2021 and in January-November 2022.

In fact, the World Health Organization reports more than 7 million deaths – from 2020-2026. Not in the United States, but around the world. An additional 3.2 million means a level of severity that COVID does not have.

Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infndrome Diseases Anthony Fauci testifies before the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee on the response to COVID-19 in Washington, DC, on November 4, 2021. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

But that’s how models work. The authors told the model to assume that COVID will kill a certain percentage of the population, they also told the model that the vaccines have a certain percentage of effectiveness, and thus they got the result they wanted.

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In 2021, the CDC estimated nearly 460,000 COVID-related deaths in the United States, and about 244,000 in 2022. This assessment means that more than four million people would have died from COVID in less than two years. That’s 1.22% of the entire US population in 2021-2022. Except we know, from actual research related data, that the death rate from COVID was much lower than that.

As that study concluded, “The average IFR was 0.0003% for 0-19 years, 0.002% for 20-29 years, 0.011% for 30-39 years, 0.035% for 40-49 years, 0.123% for 50-59 years, and 6% for 60 years.”

It is impossible for 1.22% of the American population to die in two years from COVID because COVID is not lethal enough for that to happen.

Another claim, that 120 million cases were avoided, is also, impossible. Why? Because COVID infects everyone, regardless of vaccination status. That’s why places like South Korea confirmed that almost 70% of their population will get COVID, most of them in 2021-2022, despite 90+% vaccination rates. Or another study from Denmark that found that about 70% of the population will get COVID within a month from 2021-2022, despite 90+% vaccination rates.

Hospitalization rates are equally abysmal, at 1 in 18 additional Americans would have required hospitalization for COVID from December 2020–November 2022. The actual number was about 4.6 million, meaning their total hospitalization rate would have been 23.1 million hospitalizations or about 7% of the American population. 1 out of 14. That’s crazy.

President-elect Joe Biden receives a second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine at Christiana Hospital in Newark, Del., on Jan. 11, 2021. The vaccine is administered by Chief Nurse Executive Ric Cuming. (Jim Watson/AFP)

This is a problem for academics, experts, and NGOs. They all wanted a title. They wanted a result. They make sure they get it. These experts put inputs into their model that were not supported by any relevant data or evidence, because they wanted the model to show that the COVID vaccines saved a large number of lives, hospitalizations, deaths, and money. That’s what they got. And they ruined themselves in the process.

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Oh, and speaking of money, the total spending by the US government in 2021 was $6.82 trillion and $6.27 billion in 2022. They estimated that vaccines would save $1.15 trillion in health care spending alone during that time.

This has to be one of the worst models ever created.

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Of course it came from experienced health professionals and a powerful NGO.

Yes, of course.