It took seven games for both teams to advance past the first round, but the fourth-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers now meet the top-seeded Detroit Pistons in the 2026 Eastern Conference Semifinals.
I keep hearing people say that Cleveland is a tough matchup for Detroit, and I REALLY DISAGREE.
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In fact, the Cavs took money from the market to beat the Pistons in the second round. Regardless, I like Detroit to win the series (-121) and like the Pistons to beat the Cavaliers by at least two games (+189) in Kalshi.
A simple season breakdown doesn’t tell the full story
Fittingly, the teams split the regular season series 2-2, with Cleveland going 3-1 against the spread.
Detroit Pistons PG Cade Cunningham defends Cleveland Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell at Little Caesars Arena in Michigan. (David Reginek/Imagn Images)
That said, things are different in the playoffs, where styles battle and coaches and players adjust between series.
Sure, Cavs All-Stars James Harden and Donovan Mitchell are great players, but they’re both lousy on defense.
Cade Cunningham is the best player in this series. He can run the offense, defend and control the game. Meanwhile, Detroit wing Ausar Thompson is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA.
Ausar Thompson can destroy Cleveland’s offense
Even if Harden plays Cade to draw, he won’t, Thompson will cover Mitchell.
Mitchell is a solid shooter, but he also works for rebounders and contested jumpers. That won’t work against Thompson.
Detroit has the defensive personnel to make Cleveland’s offense uncomfortable, and that’s more important in a playoff series than it is during the regular season.
Detroit should dominate the legacy battle
High-level basketball games are determined by the battle for possessions, and Detroit should dominate that area.
The Pistons averaged +4.3 field goal attempts per game during the regular season as they ranked third in offensive rebounding and led the NBA in defensive turnover rate.
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That’s a huge margin in a playoff series.
Lots of shots. More second chances. More pressure on a Cleveland team that doesn’t always have the ability to respond.
The Pistons can harass the Cavaliers on the glass
I’m basing this on muscle memory, but the Pistons will harass the Cavs in the paint.
You’d think Cleveland would be a better defensive team with two All-Star bigs, PF Evan Mobley and C Jarrett Allen.
However, a few years ago in the playoffs, the New York Knicks upset the Cavaliers, and I see this series playing out the same way.
Detroit Pistons C Jalen Duren sent Cleveland Cavaliers C Jarrett Allen to Little Caesars Arena. (Photos by Rick Osentoski-Imagn)
New York grabbed another 29 offensive rebounds in its 4-1 first-round series win over Cleveland in the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Granted, the Knick’s schedule was a little different back then. But this Pistons team has a higher offensive rebounding rate than that Knicks team.
Jalen Duren is set for a bounce-back streak
This should also be a bounce-back series for Detroit center Jalen Duren, who struggled against the Orlando Magic in the first round.
Duren averaged 21.7 points and 12.3 rebounds in three games against the Cavs during the regular season, while Mobley and Allen played in all of those games.
Duren and Pistons backup big man Isaiah Stewart will own the Cavaliers on the glass and give Detroit more possessions throughout this series.
That’s the kind of thing that changes playoff games.
Cleveland’s first-round victory was less impressive
Finally, I dropped Cleveland after winning their first round series against the Toronto Raptors.
Toronto had a great season, but the Raptors were missing two starters for most of the series and were the 11th betting option to win the East entering the season.
Toronto Raptors wing RJ Barrett scored the winning basket vs. Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 6 of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. (Photos by Nick Turchiaro/Imagn)
Meanwhile, the Magic were the third choice to bet out of the East, behind the Cavs and Knicks.
In other words, I understand Orlando going a long way with Detroit.
But I can’t ignore the Cavaliers beating the Raptors and failing to win one game in Toronto.
Detroit is a better, tougher, more physical team. The Pistons should win this series, and I like them to do it with the space left.
Best Bet: Detroit Pistons -1.5 game series (+189)
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