The Carolina Boom: Why Red States Win the Immigration War as Blue Cities Shrink
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The Carolinas are experiencing population growth driven by a combination of high-paying job opportunities, limited affordability, and an increasing number of retirees, according to a recent report by the economic forecasting firm Oxford Economics.
The report highlights that “carolina migration is driven by job opportunities, affordability, and retirees,” noting that the region’s diversity of employment and low cost of living has created a strong draw for those living in more expensive coastal areas.
While North Carolina saw the highest net migration of any state by 2023, South Carolina recently emerged as the fastest growing state in the nation by percentage. Between July 2022 and July 2023, the Palmetto State’s population grew by 1.7%, significantly outpacing the national average and fueled by a net influx of more than 82,000 immigrants.
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While North Carolina sees the highest net migration of any state by 2023, South Carolina has just emerged as the fastest growing state in the nation. (Getty Images)
“Population growth has come with an age theme, with young professionals attracted to skilled jobs in big cities, and older people tending to retire in coastal cities,” the Oxford researchers explained.
Charlotte is still a heavy hitter for the Carolinas. As the largest city in the region and a major financial center, it has seen a migration of 225,500 people in the last five years.
Raleigh, the capital of North Carolina and the cornerstone of the “Research Triangle,” followed closely behind as the second most popular municipality. Between 2021 and 2025, the city is expected to see an influx of 143,000 residents. Other notable winners include:
- Greenville, SC: 83,500 net income
- Myrtle Beach, SC: 82,000 net income
The main catalyst for this movement is housing costs. Even with significant price appreciation over the past decade, the Carolinas remain a bargain compared to the West Coast.
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Charlotte, North Carolina, the largest city in the Carolinas, had the highest rates of net migration over the past five years, with a net influx of 225,500 people. (Stock)
The “home price-to-income ratio”—a key metric of affordability—remains at 4.8 in Charlotte and 4.4 in Raleigh. Both figures are below the national average of 5.0 and half the cost of large West Coast cities like San Francisco or Los Angeles, where the average often exceeds 10.0.
The growth in these states comes as several traditionally green states struggle to return to pre-pandemic population levels. Big cities like Boston, New York, and Chicago have seen a steady downward trend in net migration.
Los Angeles County has been hit hard. According to US Census data, the region’s population has dropped from about 10 million in 2020 to about 9.7 million today. Between 2022 and 2023 alone, the region lost more than 56,000 residents.
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The US Census Bureau’s March report highlighted that the most populous counties in the country – including Los Angeles, Cook County (Chicago), Harris County (Houston) and the five boroughs of New York City – are seeing population declines. (Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)
“The country’s largest counties … tend to be centers of immigration,” said Census Bureau demographer George M. Hayward. “With few benefits of immigration, these types of regions have either slowed down population growth or turned into losses.”
As the Carolinas continue to invest in infrastructure and attract large corporate migration, experts expect the “Sun Belt” migration trend to remain strong in America’s demographics for the rest of the decade.
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