4 NFL teams to invest in and be short at sportsbooks after 2026 regular season schedule release show

Time to close. For me, the NFL season officially starts after its scheduled release show.

Because, honestly, betting on regular season baseball eats me up, the NBA Playoffs don’t have that many games going on right now, and I don’t bet on hockey.

Instead, I dive deep into roster planning, coaching changes and regression metrics to start investing in the future of the NFL.

So, in celebration of the NFL’s new fiscal year, here are four teams I’m buying or short on this season.

Carolina Panthers: NFC South (+310)

This easily fading candidate after winning the NFC South last season with a losing record (8-9), is 7-3 in one-point games, which tends to regress from year to year (see the Kansas City Chiefs’ record in one-game games in 2024 and 2025) and has the third toughest schedule this season.

And, every year, the five teams that made the playoffs the previous year don’t return to the postseason.

However, the Panthers made two big additions to their defense, including LB Devin Lloyd and pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips, who were Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) ranked fourth and 15th free agents. Lloyd was a second-team All-Pro last season and PFF’s third-ranked quarterback in the NFL.

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The Miami Dolphins traded Phillips to the Eagles before Week 10 last season, and he made a big impact on Philadelphia’s defense. From Weeks 1-9, the Eagles ranked 17th in EPA/play defense, according to RBSDM.com. After acquiring Phillips, Philly’s EPA/defensive play ranked seventh from Weeks 10-18.

More importantly, the NFL is a quarterback-driven league and I believe in Panthers QB Bryce Young as a franchise quarterback worthy of a second contract.

Young was third in fourth-quarter comebacks last season and second in game-winning drives, which is the essence of quarterback play.

Carolina’s offensive line is strong in all areas and WR Tetairoa McMillan won the 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Between their defensive additions and my assumption that Young will improve, I’ll take it PANTHERS to win NFC South (+310) and, the softest division in the NFL.

Denver Broncos: UNDER 7.5 (+280) wins

I may have to eat crow if the Broncos make the playoffs again this season, but I refuse to believe that QB Bo Nix, who broke his ankle when Denver beat the Buffalo Bills in the 2026 AFC Wild Card Round, is the franchise man.

In fact, I might just be a hater and stick with my pre-draft evaluation of him because what I wrote about Young’s fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives last season applies to the Nix.

Anyway, I am holding the line in my opinion of Nix because I feel that his success is a combination of dumb luck, his surrounding talent and Denver coach Sean Payton’s. smoke-and-mirrors offensive system.

The Broncos traded for WR Jaylen Waddle this offseason, but he’s more of a No. 2 guy than a game-breaker and wide receivers are overrated in terms of impact in wins and losses.

Meanwhile, they have plenty of signs pointing to regress this season, such as a first-place schedule (11th-easiest), above-average injury luck (eighth in “adjusted games lost to injury,” per FTN Fantasy), and going an uncontrollable 11-2 in one-point games.

Denver’s first six games have been brutal as well. The Broncos play Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Week 1, the reigning AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2, the Super Bowl 2027 betting favorite the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3, the San Francisco 49ers in Week 4, the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 5 and the defending champion Seahawks in Week 5.

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Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton talks with quarterback Bo Nix at Empower Field at Mile High in Colorado. (Isaiah J. Downing/Images)

In addition, the AFC West has two legitimate Super Bowl contenders, Kansas City and the Los Angeles Chargers, both of whom have better chances to win the division, the conference and the Lombardi Trophy.

Since the team’s winning total bet is usually down to half of the game, there is a value in some of its winning totals, Under and Over, also called “playing the longtail”.

And I don’t like putting -110 or worse on the future. So, I bet OTHER BRANCOS UNDER 7.5 (+280) at DraftKings with the idea that they will deal with planting this season and Nix is ​​featured.

Tennessee Titans: OVER 8.5 Alternate Wins (+250) and Robert Saleh to win NFL Coach of the Year (+1000)

The Titans are +320 to make the playoffs on DraftKings and the Over at their 8.5 win total is +250, which isn’t much. There is a good chance they win 9+ games and not make the playoffs.

Also, if Tennessee wins what I think will be the AFC South rivalry this season, between the Titans, Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars, Saleh’s odds for NFL Coach of the Year will close below +1000 and the Titans just +800 to win the division.

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That said, I approve of them hiring Saleh to be their head coach, and I like their core: Saleh, first-year offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, QB Cam Ward.

Tennessee Titans GM Mike Borgonzi and head coach Robert Saleh held up a Titans jersey during Saleh’s press conference. (Photos by Steve Roberts)

It didn’t work out for Saleh when he was the head coach of the New York Jets from 2021 to Week 5 of 2024. I’m not holding that against him, though, because the Jets are cursed. If you don’t believe me, ask any NYJ fan; they will tell you.

However, Saleh is a good defensive coach and this side of the football was not a problem when he was their head coach. His downfall with the Jets was that the organization couldn’t find a quarterback.

But Saleh has no excuses for the Titans. Ward is his franchise quarterback and Daboll, who also had a bad quarterback in New York, with the Giants.

However, Daboll won the 2022 NFL Coach of the Year award and played at least a small part in the development of Josh Allen when he was the Buffalo Bills’ offensive coordinator from 2018-21. Together, Saleh and Daboll can work.

The big question is, “How good is Ward?” However, I am a shareholder in “Ward as a franchise quarterback” and will buy more of his stock if you sell. Ward has 90% arm strength; athletic enough to play the role in 2026, he throws when he runs and plays with his legs.

By drafting Carnell Tate fourth in the NFL Draft last month, the Titans are at least trying to get Ward the No. 1 wide receiver. They also signed a solid slot receiver, Wan’Dale Robinson, in free agency.

In fact, Tennessee spent a lot of time in free agency this offseason, so Daboll and Saleh got to build a roster that fit their plans.

If Ward is who I think he is, Saleh makes their league average defense and Daboll returns to being a good offensive coordinator, the Titans could exceed their betting odds this season.

For the record, I’m betting three quarters of a unit on another Tennessee win and another quarter unit on Saleh winning NFL Coach of the Year.

Minnesota Vikings: NFC North (+550)

I’m buying stock in the Vikings who signed QB Kyler Murray to a team-friendly deal this offseason after he was taken first overall in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Murray has something to prove and could earn a promotion if he has a solid year in Minnesota this season. Sam Darnold is an example of a castoff quarterback who had something to prove and did so with the Vikings.

With that in mind, this is a great second chance for Murray, who has a higher ceiling and lower floor than QB JJ McCarthy. Murray made the playoffs and two Pro Bowl teams. He is one of the most athletic athletes in football and has a cannon.

Although the Vikings regretted choosing McCarthy instead of Darnold last season. McCarthy was one of the worst players in the league last year while Darnold won the Super Bowl. That seems difficult and led to their former general, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, being sacked at the end of last season.

Still, fourth-year Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell can build a winning team around Murray as his quarterback. O’Connell has a career record of 43-25 and 13- and 14-win seasons with Darnold and Kirk Cousins ​​and won the 2024 NFL Coach of the Year award.

The Vikings have one of the best pass-catching groups in the NFL, including five game-breakers in the business, Justin Jefferson, WRs Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings and TE TJ Hockenson.

Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson runs with the ball after a catch against the Chicago Bears at US Bank Stadium. (Photos by Brad Rempel-Imagn)

Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores is one of the best defensive minds in football and will get another NFL head coaching job.

My biggest concern is separation. The NFC North is the most competitive division in the league and all four teams can win it.

The bottom line is, given their talent and coaching staff, the Vikings could be the NFL’s “worst early” team this season and their +550 odds to win the NFC North should be closer to +400.

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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clarkand check mine The OutKick Bets Podcast with more betting content and random insults.