The TV networks have more power over the NFL and broadcasters than the league realizes
DOJ is investigating NFL over streaming deals as antitrust exemption draws scrutiny
The Justice Department is investigating exclusive NFL broadcasts amid fan frustration over fragmented and paid access. FCC Chairman Brendan Carr is questioning whether the league should keep its special antitrust exemption, first established by the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961. Fox News contributor Jonathan Turley suggests that Congress examine the structure of the NFL, highlighting their annual revenue of $25 billion and the rising costs of fans.
The current issue surrounding the NFL’s media rights is that the league will pressure its television partners to pay a higher premium before the 2029-30 (2030-31 for ESPN) season begins, or risk losing their broadcast packages.
However, we are not convinced that the NFL is as powerful as it has led industry insiders and the public to believe. And, no, it’s not because of the scrutiny of the US Department of Justice.
Netflix and NFL signs advertise two of the NFL’s Christmas Day marquee games broadcast live on Netflix in New Orleans, Louisiana, on Dec. 1, 2024. (Aaron M. Sprecher/Getty Images)
To be sure, the current broadcast partners — ESPN/ABC, Fox, CBS and NBC — can’t compete financially with the tech companies around the league. Alphabet, owned by Google and YouTube, has an estimated market cap of $4.78 trillion. Amazon sits at $2.84 trillion. In a pure bidding war, traditional networks will almost certainly lose. But that scenario assumes that broadcasters actually want the same packages that networks currently carry.
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So far, the evidence suggests otherwise.
Netflix and YouTube have both expressed interest in adding NFL lineups, but consider the types of sports they pursue.
Netflix expanded its NFL package from two to five games this season, adding a Week 1 international game, Thanksgiving Eve and a Week 18 game alongside a Christmas Day doubleheader. That modest increase is consistent with what Netflix executives have said publicly about their strategy.
“We don’t bid on every sports season, including the NFL,” Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos told FOX Business host Maria Bartiromo this week.
Perhaps Netflix will eventually add a few show windows, especially if the league opens more inventory to the market in 2029. But still, the company seems to focus on event programs rather than a full weekly schedule. There are also no independent marquee windows left for Netflix to follow. Thanksgiving Eve already felt like a stretch.
Streaming service EverPass Media has announced that it will be the exclusive commercial provider of the NFL Sunday Ticket beginning in the 2026 season. (Aaron M. Sprecher/Getty Images)
YouTube tells a similar story. Despite months of speculation that it would secure more NFL rights, the stadium will not host games this season. And while YouTube may remain interested in future opportunities, its focus once again appears to be on premium events rather than weekly packages.
Its business model helps explain why. The core YouTube platform is free. Broadcasting last season’s Chiefs-Chargers game in Brazil for free felt like advertising. Carrying an entire NFL season for free would not.
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YouTube TV is not the right place. At about $85 a month, putting NFL games behind that paywall would greatly reduce the league’s reach.
Apple, despite its market cap of $4.41 trillion, has shown little significant interest in NFL rights. That could always change, but right now there’s little indication that the company is preparing for a big push.
Bar patrons watch a YouTube TV broadcast of the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers in Buffalo, NY, on September 5, 2025. (Aaron M. Sprecher/Getty Images)
Amazon is the exception. Since taking over on Thursday nights in 2022, Amazon has shown a willingness to carry the weekly NFL package. The question is how much money it wants to invest.
The industry consensus is that Amazon and other technology companies are unlikely to pursue regional packages for Fox and CBS on Sunday afternoons because of the huge demands involved. Those packages require multiple production workers working simultaneously across the country each week.
Likewise, Amazon is unlikely to challenge ESPN for Monday Night Football, especially after the NFL acquired an equity stake in ESPN. If anything, ESPN, which already pays the league more annually than any other partner ($2.7 billion), could eventually end up with more games split between ESPN and NFL Network.
That leaves NBC.
The aggressive NBA contract has fueled industry speculation that the network may lose Sunday Night. But when that happens, the obvious question becomes: for whom?
In theory, Amazon could run on Sunday Night Football. Beyond that possibility, however, it’s hard to envision broadcasters taking over the NFL’s weekly television schedule within the next decade unless their strategies change dramatically.
With that in mind, broadcast networks may be better off sticking to their existing deals during the outage, rather than dramatically increasing rights payments out of fear.
The most likely outcome is that technology companies gain a greater presence at marquee events, particularly the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl is the kind of property that Netflix, YouTube and Amazon are likely to aggressively pursue.
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That doesn’t mean native networks won’t be affected. As of this season, NBC, CBS and Fox already have to share Super Bowl rotation duties with ESPN/ABC. More partners will also reduce diversity.
Still, the NFL and the broadcast networks remain highly dependent on each other.
As powerful as the NFL is, the broadcast giants don’t seem interested in abandoning their current aggressive bidding strategies for weekly NFL packages.
Until that changes, relying on traditional television remains a financial advantage for the league.
And that gives TV networks a lot of power.
