Extreme disrespect: The Spurs shouldn’t be huge underdogs against the Thunder in Game 2

The quick opening series of the 2026 Western Conference Finals is a tough act to follow. But San Antonio (1-0) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (0-1) will square off in Game 2 on Wednesday at 8:30 pm ET.

Thanks to Victor Wembanyama’s game of the year, San Antonio upset Oklahoma City 122-115 in double overtime in Game 1. Wembanyama had game-highs in points (41), rebounds (24) and blocks (3) and hit a ridiculous 27-foot-long 3-pointer to force double overtime.

Wemby and the Spurs did a great job defending Thunder big Chet Holmgren and reigning two-time NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Monday. Holmgren was held to 8 points on 28.6% shooting (2-for-7) and SGA scored 24 points on 30.4% shooting (7-for-23).

CAN VICTOR BLACK BE THE TRUE FACE OF THE NBA AS A EUROPEAN?

Despite trailing 81% for Game 1, the Thunder are still a -7/-7.5 favorite for Game 2. In general, this get-right the game of the great favorite. There’s a lucrative NBA postseason schedule where heavy favorites roll over in Game 2 after losing the series opener.

However, I’m putting that noise to rest because I’ll bet on the teams in the Middle East if they’re +4 or more in the next 10 years or so.

Best Bet: San Antonio Spurs +7.5 (-115)

Part of the reason the big favorites bounced back and won Game 2 is that the underdog stole the series opener with a wild performance. That’s not the case in San Antonio, however.

2026 WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS ODDS, TOP BETTING, SPREAD: SAN ANTONIO SPURS VS OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

The Spurs won three “four factors” in Game 1: Effective field goal rate, including 2-3 point shooting, rebounding and the free throw battle.

San Antonio Spurs big Victor Wembanyama blocks Oklahoma City Thunder wing Jalen Williams in double overtime of Game 1 of their conference finals series in the 2026 NBA Playoffs. (Alonzo Adams/Images)

San Antonio’s limitations in rebounding and free throws are a big concern for OKC. The Spurs grabbed 21 more rebounds in Game 1 and got to the foul line 10 more times.

Now, people might say that’s because of the regression, but not really. San Antonio led the NBA in defensive rebounding and FT/FGA rate during the regular season. With Wemby there, the Spurs will always grab rebounds and don’t have to gamble on defense.

And, if there was an outside performance in Game 1, it was Thunder’s Alex Caruso’s team-high 31 points on 11-of-19 shooting. In the end, Spurs will let him hit three because any Caruso runner is a good defense for them.

San Antonio Spurs C Victor Wembanyama gets a rebound from Oklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren in Game 1 of the 2026 Western Conference Finals. (Alonzo Adams/Images)

Additionally, as a team, the Thunder were only 13th in offensive FT/FGA this season and 22nd in total rebounding. Shai is a “free-throw agent,” but Oklahoma City is not.

OUTKICK IS NOW ON THE FOX APP: CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD

Finally, the market expects the Thunder to make the right adjustments in Game 2, but their depth carried over into this game. San Antonio is deep, including the 2025-26 NBA Sixth Man of the Year, Keldon Johnson, enough for the playoffs.

Prediction: Thunder 108, Spurs 104

________________________________________

Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clarkand check mine The OutKick Bets Podcast with more betting content and random insults.