The unusual US-China international agreement is technically working, but China is still moving goods, deficits continue, and Trump left Beijing last week without a confirmed extension of the agreement, which expires in November 2026.
For investors looking at the rare earth home sector, the fine print is more important than the title.
China controls about 70% of the world’s rare earth mines and processes between 85% and 90% of the world’s supply. Those minerals, used in permanent magnets for AI data centers, electric vehicles, and military hardware, have no immediate replacement in the West. The agreement bought time, but the underlying problem has not changed.
That’s a setup Sean Brodrick of Weiss Ratings has been watching closely. His thought: even if China eases supply, the US government is committed to maintaining prices for key domestic producers, which means the economy doesn’t collapse because China’s exports resume.
Washington has made that priority clear, and is backing them with big money. And, as Brodrick notes, China has shown a willingness to reimpose restrictions if they see fit. The truce clock is already running.
Minerals Powering the New Economy
Rare earth elements are not industrial inputs; they are included in the infrastructure of the modern economy.
Four key rare earths—neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium—are essential for permanent magnets used in everything from EV motors to AI data center equipment.
Rare heavy earths, such as dysprosium and terbium, are very important because they protect the conductor from damage caused by heat, making them especially important for high-performance applications.
China’s export control playbook specifically targets these materials. The restrictions introduced in late 2024 and extended in 2025 cover gallium, germanium, antimony, and several rare earth elements. The November 2025 deal temporarily suspended those controls, but customs data shows Beijing is still effectively restricting exports, keeping supplies tight and prices high.
For US companies that depend on these materials for defense systems, semiconductors, and hardware for clean energy, temporary downtime is not a good supply chain strategy. an apple NASDAQ: AAPL CEO Tim Cook has already responded, striking a deal to supply MP Materials Corp. NYSE: MP acquiring rare earths produced at home—a sign that major US companies are taking risks.
Critical Metals Corp.: Greenland Play
Critical Instruments Today
As of 05/22/2026 04:00 PM Eastern
- 52 week interval
- $1.32
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$32.15
Critical Metals Corp. NASDAQ: CRML is developing the Tanbreez project in southern Greenland, one of the world’s largest rare earths.
The US Export-Import Bank has issued a letter of interest for a potential financing package of 120 million, and the company has received approval to increase its ownership stake in Tanbreez to 92.5%.
What gives Critical Metals its strategic weight is the nature of the deposit.
Tanbreez is a rare heavy resource in the world, a category that China is very limited in. That is not a coincidence. For US defense independence, projects like Tanbreez are not voluntary. Brodrick sees CRML as having significant room to run from current levels, noting that it remains well below the highs it reached when US-China tensions rose.
Critical Metals is still developing and importing first. The production timeline is measured in years, not quarters. Government support helps reduce financing risks, but there are still significant hurdles and permitting barriers.
USA Rare Earth: Mine to Magnet
USA Rare Earth Today
As of 05/22/2026 04:00 PM Eastern
- 52 week interval
- $8.00
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$43.98
- Target Value
- $35.40
Company USA Rare Earth, Inc. NASDAQ: USAR build something rarer than mining minerals: a complete, vertically integrated domestic chain that is rare.
The company controls Round Top Mountain in West Texas, which owns at least 15 of its 17 rare earth properties, and a commercial magnet production facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma.
The US Department of Commerce supported the company with a non-binding letter of intent worth $1.6 billion, including $277 million in CHIPS Act funding.
USAR has been one of the most volatile terms in the field, changing dramatically with each policy topic. Brodrick’s view on that dynamic: entry point, not reason not to stay. The government’s price level means the long-term economy is not at the mercy of whatever China decides this November.
For investors who can tolerate volatility, mine-to-magnetism is a structural advantage in a sector where many companies control only one part of the chain.
When supply dwindles in China’s fines, Brodrick’s instinct is to buy because restrictions can always come back, and domestic construction has to happen regardless.
American Rare Earths: An Early-Stage Wild Card
American Rare Earths Today
American Rare Earths
As of 05/22/2026 03:59 PM Eastern
- 52 week interval
- $0.14
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$0.78
The most speculative of the three is American Rare Earths Ltd. OTCMKTS: ARRNF. Despite the name, it is an Australian company operating in the US, developing the Halleck Creek project in Wyoming, which the company describes as the largest rare earth resource in North America.
Halleck Creek contains four important rare earth magnetic properties and has a significant advantage over most earth deposits: unusually low levels of radioactivity, which reduces regulatory barriers to permitting and operations. The US government has supported the company’s technological development through R&D partnerships, and that work has produced breakthroughs that the company says are lower operating costs. Preliminary exploration is expected, followed by an exploration phase that will ship the mined material to Saskatchewan for the production of refined oxide. American Rare Earths also mentioned plans to raise the Nasdaq.
This one carries the greatest danger of the three. There are no direct US government bonds yet, and the stock trades at half a dollar on the OTC market. Brodrick is blunt about that: the odds are in favor of this group, this project, and this location—Wyoming is among the most mining-friendly states in the country—but nothing is guaranteed.
The Long View
The agreement that expires in November 2026—and that China is already working around—is not a supply chain solution. China has a demonstrated desire to use export restrictions as an economic advantage, and nothing in the current agreement changes the structural reality. The question isn’t whether extraordinary domestic land development is an issue—Washington has already responded to that with massive financial commitments. The question is: which projects have the resources, management, and staying power to succeed?
Brodrick’s framework is straightforward: flexibility in this field is noise. The signal is the long-term construction of a rare domestic industry that the US cannot afford to leave unfinished. Pullbacks are the ones that come in. What happens in any trade negotiations is a chapter. The book is very long.
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