More than 100 days since the Iran war began, investors are still struggling to predict when or how it might end. Amidst headlines about cease-fires and renewed strikes, it’s hard to assess how the conflict might progress—and what the effects on the market might be. Given the turmoil, investors may want to turn to stocks that may outperform in the event of an end to hostilities but may still perform well if hostilities continue.
A clear choice of companies that could benefit from the cessation of hostilities in Iran are those companies involved in the tourism and leisure industries, both of which are closely linked to the price of oil and gasoline. Companies like United Airlines Holdings Inc. NASDAQ: UALMarriott International NASDAQ: MARand Royal Caribbean Cruises NYSE: RCL everything fits this bill. However, each of these companies may continue to do well even if the battle continues, and this is reflected in the broad optimism across Wall Street.
United Benefits From Lower Fuel Costs But May Be Tough Still
United Airlines, like other airlines across the industry, is greatly affected by the Iran conflict, particularly due to fluctuations in the cost of jet fuel. When fuel costs fall, United directly benefits—and amid recent armistice announcements, airline stocks like UAL rallied based on investor expectations of the situation.
United Airlines Today
United Airlines
- 52 week interval
- $71.55
▼
$124.79
- The P/E ratio
- 10.86
- Target Value
- $134.59
Beyond the cost component, the Iran conflict presents new geopolitical risks affecting air corridors and air traffic and the need for international travel. All of this weighs on the profits and limits of United, which must continue to exceed its high fixed operating costs regardless.
If the war continues, United has the ability to pass on higher fuel costs to customers—in fact, the company indicated in its Q1 2026 earnings report that it expects to fully recover its jet fuel costs by 2026, which will result in a double-digit pre-tax 2027 return. The company was able to pay off more than $3 billion in debt on its first mortgage. United has also suggested it may reduce capacity. By cutting off the sidelines, the company can focus on its more profitable activities.
Marriott’s Pass-Through Potential is also strong, and RevPAR winds may be overstated
Like United, Marriott benefits when business travel recovers, and companies tend to increase travel budgets for employees when the country’s risks decrease. This could be especially important for international travel, which is likely to see an increase once the conflict in Iran is resolved. In addition, overall consumer confidence will rise as well, and since customers are less concerned about war or the price of travel, leisure spending may improve.
Marriott International Today
Marriott International
- 52 week interval
- $253.76
▼
$410.98
- Dividend Yield
- 0.73%
- The P/E ratio
- 42.23
- Target Value
- $384.73
The Middle East conflict is undoubtedly a headwind for Marriott—the company expects it could reduce its full-year global revenue per available room (revPAR) by 100-125 points—but the chain did very well in Q1 on revPAR and recently raised its full-year guidance. In addition, financials were strong in the first quarter despite headwinds, with adjusted EBITDA up 15% year-over-year (YOY) and adjusted earnings per share up 17% over the same period.
And like United, Marriott may be able to pass some of its additional costs on to customers through higher room rates. The company also has the advantage of franchising many of its locations, which helps reduce its exposure to energy costs. Finally, domestic travel may be less likely to be affected by the conflict than international travel, giving Marriott a stronger part of its business to fall back on.
Royal Caribbean Has Fuel Struggle Or Dispute Continues
Royal Caribbean Cruises Today
Royal Caribbean Cruises
- 52 week interval
- $232.10
▼
$366.50
- Dividend Yield
- 1.91%
- The P/E ratio
- 19.18
- Target Value
- $344.79
Cruise lines like Royal Caribbean are also exposed to the price of fuel, which is often one of the highest operating costs for a company like this. Like airlines, stocks of cruise lines often see a spike when headlines suggest a strike is imminent. Another advantage for Royal Caribbean in the event of an end to the conflict in Iran is likely to be strong booking criteria, which are closely linked to consumer confidence.
On the other hand, if the war continues, Royal Caribbean may be able to ride on its strong pricing power, thanks to cruise demand that has been remarkably resilient since COVID. The company is also well-positioned for fuel shortages, which could give it an advantage over other competitors. Analysts are bullish on RCL shares, with nearly three-quarters calling the stock a Buy and a consensus price target of around 20% to a potential upside.
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