There is no art in this deal: Why the Iranian mullahs won’t sell the nuclear bomb
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The United States’ strategy toward the Islamic Republic has passed the threshold that marks the definitive end of a century of Western skepticism.
In a historic White House press conference, the President – accompanied by CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth – scrapped the longstanding policy of “managed stability” in favor of a strategy aimed at the collapse of the empire. By ensuring the systematic dismantling of clerical security services, highlighted by the death of IRGC Intelligence Chief Majid Khademi in a joint US-Israeli strike, and demonstrating the end of the regime’s unstoppable control over strategic corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz, the administration has passed the failed diplomatic cycle of 21099.
Although mediators may continue to offer a ‘backdoor’ for a temporary ceasefire, history warns us that for the mullahs, such agreements are hardly a bridge to peace. They are a smart survival technique designed to prevent a nuclear fallout. As this new era of clarity continues, the lesson remains: to leave any part of this clerical structure in power, even in a state of ‘negotiated’ weakness, is not a decision – it is simply a stay of execution.”
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We have to face the fact that the government has pushed this problem forward as a calculated strategy. According to the March 2026 intelligence survey, the leadership is creating regional chaos to act as a shield for their final race towards the bomb. The latest IAEA reports are alarming: the state has more than 450kg of 60% enriched uranium – enough for nine to eleven nuclear weapons – with an explosion time now measured in days. For elite clerics who view nuclear weapons as their only ticket to longevity, military strikes on infrastructure are only a temporary fix if the core of the regime remains intact. If any part of this structure is left powerless, they will find a way to renew the weapon.
History provides a guide to how clerical power has been systematically removed – and never by honorable agreement. Even the most powerful rulers of the world have fallen into the trap of clerics. Napoleon Bonaparte and Benito Mussolini both tried to disrupt the religious movements through treaties, but found that the institutional memory of the clergy and the divine functions outweighed their secular authority. Real national rule was achieved in France and Turkey only through the abolition of political and institutional clerical rule.
In Iran, this clerical structure is not limited to those who wear turbans; including mullahs in suits – commissars and generals who remain zealously devoted to the theocracy. They swallowed the national infrastructure, leaving no internal means of reform. The clerical elite does not change; they only give up power when it is structurally taken away from them. The mullahs are students of this history; they know that in a republican country, they don’t just lose a seat at the table – they lose the table entirely.
In a theocracy, the agreement is a temporary suspension. They viewed the North Korean model with envy, learning that nuclear deterrence is the only guaranteed deterrent to Western-led regime change and a permanent tool for coercive power projection throughout the region. Historically, the mullahs have repeatedly sacrificed Iran’s democracy and independence in order to protect their position – from finding fraud in the 19th century British monopolies over Iran’s infrastructure to aligning with the Shah to ending the 1906 Constitutional Revolution.
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Growing up in Iran, many outsiders learned a silly proverb: “The mullah will trade any holy principle for a qeran – the smallest coin.” For the IRGC, the stakes of change are high. Because they control the country’s major industries and shadow markets, any transition to the state would mean a complete loss of their accumulated wealth, social status, and legal insecurity. They have every incentive to keep a nuclear sword over the international community to protect their corruption from domestic rebellion and project power abroad.
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To understand the mullahs is to understand the concept of Heroic Flexibility. This is not moderation; it is a survival strategy based on the Treaty of Hudaybiyyah (628 AD). At that crucial moment, the Prophet Muhammad signed a ten-year peace treaty with his enemies the Quraysh tribe in Mecca to buy time for his community to grow in strength. Today, the state steals this heritage to bait and switch, granting temporary concessions to ease pressure while waiting for the country’s winds to change.
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Ultimately, the Islamic Republic cannot be controlled; it should be dismantled. The only way to a stable Middle East and world is to support the Iranian people in overthrowing the regime that has held them captive for a century. This requires a strategy that matches the complete economic separation of clerical and IRGC resources with current military pressure. The UAE’s recent push for the coalition to continue the campaign until the regime weakens presents a historic opportunity. By using war to discredit the IRGC and cut off the financial arteries that support their oppression, we are creating the space needed for the Iranian people to reclaim their sovereignty.
The mullahs don’t want an off-ramp; they want a nuclear defense to ensure their survival. As long as the clergy building is still there, the bomb is always there. We have to stop giving them a rope to build.
