Ukraine just hit a major Russian refinery for the third time in the last 2 weeks
Even before Ukrainian drones raided the Tuapse oil refinery early Tuesday morning, workers were already on site on Russia’s Black Sea coast trying to mop up oil from an earlier attack that sent oil slicks into the water and black rain from the sky.
The refinery, owned by Russian oil giant Rosneft, has been hit three times in the past two weeks.
After the latest strike, Ukraine’s special forces took to Telegram to announce that the country had achieved a “hat trick,” and Russian President Vladimir Putin said Kyiv was fueling the global blackout.
Putin ordered the country’s emergency minister to fly to the area to take control of the fire. Black, toxic smoke filled the area, as part of the consequences of Ukraine’s efforts to intensify attacks on Russian energy facilities, including export facilities.
Ukraine has been ramping up the strategy at a time of unprecedented oil price volatility, and has continued strikes despite its allies asking Kyiv to tone them down amid an energy crisis stemming from the Iran war.
“There is this new confidence on the part of the Ukrainian people,” said Timothy Ash, i Fellow of the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.
“It’s like the people of Ukraine have found out that we are economically strong, and … this can change our game.”
The drone wave hits them
While most of the world is caught in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the dramatic expansion oil prices after the US and Israel’s war against Iran, Ukraine was trying to destroy Russia’s ability to make money from its oil sales.
In accordance with Reuters analysis, In recent weeks, twelve treatment plants have been hit, as well as additional ports and tanks.
Russia has been benefiting from rising prices, partly because of Washington’s decision to temporarily ease sanctions against Moscow, allowing the sale of Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded on ships and at sea.
Ash, who spoke to CBC News as part of a panel hosted by Chatham House on April 21, says he believes Ukraine is moving forward now because of Washington’s strikes on Iran.
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused ‘the biggest threat to energy security in history,’ said Fatih Birol, director general of the International Energy Agency. Ryan Cummings of the Stanford Institute for Economy Policymaking says the shutdown so far is equivalent to a billion barrels of oil out of the economy.
He says months, a message from the US to Kyiv it was to stop attacks on Russian refineries, because it could lead to disruption of the world’s oil supply.
Now, with International Energy Agency declaring that the conflict in the Middle East has led to the largest supply disruption in history, Ash says that Ukraine is taking a “no-holds-barred” approach.
In late March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said some allies had called on Kyiv to scale back its attacks in the Russian energy sector. He said that will only happen if Russia stops attacking Ukraine.
Black Sea exports
The Tuapse refinery, 900 kilometers southeast of Kyiv, has been closed since April 16 because drone damage to the port made it difficult to ship its oil for export.
I the refinery has a daily production capacity of 240,000 barrels, and is producing naphtha, diesel, fuel oil and vacuum gasoil.
After another refinery in Novorossiysk was heavily damaged in a drone attack earlier in April, Rosneft began to divert some of its oil in Tuapse, which has been attacked three times in April.
After the latest strike, more than 30 residents living near the refinery were evacuated to a local school, and more than 200 firefighters were deployed to put out the fire. Russian media reported that dark clouds of smoke could be seen as far away as Sochi, 80 kilometers to the south along the Black Sea coast.
“We have to reduce it [Russia’s] the body’s ability to ship oil to ships and transport it outside its ports,” said Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Kyiv-based Energy Industry Research Center, a consulting firm that focused on energy security throughout the war.
“Our main objective here is to limit Russia’s ability to finance the war.”
Global energy supply
Kharchenko, who spoke to CBC News via Zoom from Kyiv, said Tuapse accounts for about 12 percent of Russia’s total oil exports, and while Russia will work to repair it, each successful Ukrainian strike makes it more expensive for Moscow to send its energy.
He says the strikes are disrupting Russia’s export system and limiting the number of workers willing to risk stopping at these ports.
Kharchenko says he doesn’t think Ukraine’s strategy has changed because of the global oil crisis, and says recent successful strikes are partly due to Ukraine now fielding more drones, and having more knowledge about targeting.
However, he says the lack of power is another reason why he thinks Kyiv should dial the pressure.
“The prices went up without our participation. It was because of the war in Iran that was started by the US,” said Kharchenko.
“But in Ukraine it caused more problems because [Moscow] earns money for the same amount of oil it exports.”
