ASTS Stock Outlook Depends on BlueBird Launch, Earnings, and Analyst Sentiment

Midland, Texas-based AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS it was a battleground for the bulls and bears this year.

Among aerospace stocks, it has been one of the most volatile, seeing its fair share of ups and downs in 2026 including a 59% high on May 28 and a series of double-digit highs and troughs mixed in.

That trend has continued over the past month. Shares are up more than 35% from a one-month low on June 25 to June 30. But since the calendar turned to July, the stock has given back nearly half of those gains, as ASTS is now down more than 17% from that recent high.

With its beta now up to 2.69, SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX a competitor and a space-based direct-to-device (D2D) mobile broadband provider are likely to be positioned in much the same location. But a combination of potential catalysts and inhibitors will ultimately determine whether AST SpaceMobile is able to return to green during the second half of the year.

Tailwinds: Strategic Partnerships, Integrated BlueBird Launches, and Increased Operational Efficiency

AST SpaceMobile’s bull case remains unchanged in large part due to maintaining its early advantage in the space-based D2D market.

That resulted in a number of strong strategic deals that strengthened the company’s position.

Recently, ASTS got a bump in Japan’s push for 912 million satellite communications. That put AST SpaceMobile’s existing partnership with Tokyo-based Rakuten OTCMKTS: RKUNY back in the spotlight while raising hopes for a major D2D release. The two companies are forming a joint venture to oversee the regulatory approval of D2D operations in Japan, with the first commercial services expected to begin later in 2026.

The company also has agreements with nearly 60 mobile network providers worldwide, including more than three billion subscribers, and a strategic partnership with AT&T. NYSE: TVerizon NYSE: VZVodafone NASDAQ: VODRakuten, Alphabet NASDAQ: GOOGLand real estate investment trust American Tower NYSE: AMTamong others. Over time, that relationship should continue to drive AST SpaceMobile’s top-line growth, translating into solid earnings for patient investors.

The accelerated launch schedule of the company’s BlueBird low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites—the largest commercial array currently in operation—serves as another catalyst. A simultaneous launch of the next three, including BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13, is scheduled for early August from Cape Canaveral, Florida, on a Falcon 9 rocket.

Combined launches should go a long way toward AST SpaceMobile meeting its 2026 launch goal of having 45 BlueBirds in LEO. According to president Scott Wisniewski, the company is in the process of manufacturing and assembling satellites with BlueBird 37.

Windfalls: Rising Costs, Delivery Targets, Missing Earnings

Scaling at the speed and size of a company comes at a high cost. AST SpaceMobile posted a net loss of $342 million in 2025, which was nearly 969% higher than its net loss in 2022 after its first full year of operations as a publicly traded company. However, in Q1, that loss accelerated to $191 million.

As the company ramps up its launch and launch program, analysts are predicting a full-year cash burn rate of between $1.5 billion and $1.8 billion.

Another potential storm is AST SpaceMobile’s lofting BlueBird target launch. While that also works as a short-term windfall, in the long run, it could spell trouble. Unforeseen launch problems and glitches—such as Blue Origin’s sending of BlueBird 7 into an insufficient orbit in April—could negatively impact AST SpaceMobile’s ability to meet its year-end launch goal. BlueBird 7 was then canceled, however the company still maintains that it can achieve its goal of having 45 LEO satellites deployed by the end of 2026.

Meanwhile, sentiment has negatively impacted the series’ earnings per share (EPS) streak. AST SpaceMobile remains unprofitable, but its negative EPS has missed analysts’ mark for five straight quarters, by just two beats in the past 11 quarters. This played a major role in the outflows driven by impatient investors who were waiting for the stock—which had its IPO in April 2021—to turn the corner.

Where Wall Street Stands

The smart money seems to err on the side of caution when it comes to ASTS.

The sentiment is disappointing, with one of the 10 analysts covering the stock giving it a buy rating.

Overall, it maintains a consensus Reduce rating despite a 12-month price target indicating about 16% potential upside from current levels.

Over the past year, insider sales dwarfed insider purchases by an average of more than $451 million to just over $187,000.

But institutional investors are clearly taking a long-term approach, with buyers putting in $2.34 billion over the past 12 months compared to outflows of just over $487 million.

However, as mentioned earlier, more volatility is ahead, as indicated by the current short interest of 21% of the float, which equates to 5.45 billion shares.

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