Blockbuster Game 7: The best four bets for San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder
Despite reaching Game 7, the 2026 Western Conference Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder has yet to reach the classic Game 1 double overtime.
Although the winning team has changed in the last four games, the swing has been at least 13 points. Also, the Oklahoma City clash has been the biggest story of the conference finals, much to the chagrin of us NBA fans.
However, that will be largely forgotten if the Spurs-Thunder finale is another thriller. DraftKings reveals the final: Oklahoma City is -162 on the money line and -3.5 on the favorites, and the total is 212.5 as of Friday afternoon.
SPURS CONTINUE TO RUN, FORCE GAME 7 AS VICTOR WEMBAYAMA LEADS FOR 28-POINT DOUBLE-DOUBLE
Oklahoma City Thunder All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is defended by San Antonio Spurs wing Stephon Castle in Game 6 of the 2026 Western Conference Finals at the Frost Bank Center in Texas. (Photos by Daniel Dunn/Imagn)
That said, Game 7 can be fun regardless of the drama, as long as we (I) win money. With that in mind, here is my betting card for the final Spurs-Thunder series on Saturday.
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder Game 7 betting slip
- San Antonio Spurs +3.5 (-108) at DraftKings, risking 1.08 units (u).
- OVER 212.5 (-110) at DraftKings, risking 1.1u.
- Thunder C Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 19.5 points, rebounds, assists (-104) at DraftKings, at a risk of 0.52u.
- Spurs PG De’Aaron Fox OVER 5.5 assists (-115) at FanDuel, it risks 0.58u.
San Antonio Spurs +3.5
Basically, I’m doubling down on my pre-series prediction for San Antonio to make the 2026 NBA Finals for four reasons:
- The Spurs win three “four points” in the conference finals and have been very efficient.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is not playing well enough.
- Thunder big Chet Holmgren is shaking.
- Oklahoma City needs a friendly whistle to beat San Antonio.
First, margin of victory is the only thing the Thunder wins in this series. That’s because Spurs PG De’Aaron Fox missed the first two games of the conference finals and Stephon Castle turned the ball over 20 times in Games 1 and 2.
Since Fox’s return in Game 3, San Antonio has had more assists and fewer turnovers. Aside from SGA getting to the foul line, the best part of OKC’s offense is hitting turnovers. If they protect the ball, the Spurs will shut the Thunder out of the half court.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder drives in the paint against the San Antonio Spurs during Game 6 of the 2026 Western Conference Finals at Frost Bank Center in Texas. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
This leads to my second point: Gilgeous-Alexander can’t get quality looks in this matchup. He is averaging just 24.3 points per game (PPG) in this series, down from his 31.1 regular season PPG, on 37.9% shooting.
You can’t win the conference finals when your best player is struggling like this. San Antonio is very tall and athletic, and Victor Wembanyama is the best defensive basketball player ever. They take Shai’s mid-range game and compete with all of his jumpers.
Third, Holmgren has always been a giant, and he looks scared out there. Chet played the second most minutes for the Thunder in this series and attempted the fourth most field goals. They need Holmgren to step up with injured wing Jaylen Williams, and he’s playing soft.
Fourth, and I hate to talk about this, but the Thunder’s brand of basketball sucks because they play for fouls instead of points. Even though OKC swims and eats junk food non-stop, San Antonio has a higher free throw margin because they are a bigger and more visible team.
Oklahoma City gets cooked if the refs don’t like Gilgeous-Alexander throwing himself down, Holmgren pretending to be hit by a car, or forward Lu Dort exaggerating his contact with the screen.
OUTKICK IS NOW ON THE FOX APP: CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD
Maybe the Spurs are a year or two too early, and Oklahoma City’s bench is going home like it has in most of the NBA playoffs. However, San Antonio is the better basketball team with the best player in this series.
OVER 212.5
Geoff Clark’s analysis of Over the San Antonio Spurs at the Oklahoma City Thunder Game 7 of the 2026 Western Conference Finals. (OutKick Newsletter)
Thunder C Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 19.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists
Hartenstein surpassed this number in his stat combo in three games of this series. But he was actually benched in Game 1 after just 12:10 minutes, and only played 16:05 minutes in Game 6 because Oklahoma City was pressured.
Originally thought not to play in this game, Hartenstein gets a lot of runs because he is physical, and OKC needs someone to fight Wembanyama in the paint. Hartenstein also has a floater that he has been working on Wemby in this series.
In addition, Hartenstein has at least 20 points, rebounds and assists in three regular season games against San Antonio. He leads the Thunder in scoring in the conference finals and ranks second in assists.
Spurs PG De’Aaron Fox OVER 5.5 Assists
You can’t train your betbut I hope that Fox will establish his colleagues rather than seek his own case. Coyote shooting should be a last resort if no other San Antonio offensive actions are effective.
THE NBA’S NEW LOTTERY SYSTEM DRAWS OUT THE WORST TEAMS WITH HIGH ODDS OF FAILURE, BUT COULD YIELD SIGNIFICANT PAYOUTS.
The Spurs have lob threats (Wembanyama and Castle) and 3-point shooters (forward Julian Champagnie and SG Devin Vassell) in their starting lineup. Fox has dished out 6+ assists in nine of his 16 games in the playoffs, including three of four in this series.
_________________________________
Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clarkand check mine The OutKick Bets Podcast with more betting content and random insults.
