Breaking down the United States’ path to the 2026 FIFA World Cup finals as the playoffs loom

The USMNT are flying high as the winners of Group D. Winning their first two games has been historic. The nation is brimming with patriotism and ready to ride this wave all the way to the World Cup finals, but the road just got tougher after Belgium’s big win on Friday. Now it’s time to reverse the USA’s path to what could be its first World Cup finals appearance in history.

Round 32

The USA opens the playoffs on July 1 in Santa Clara, California, against Bosnia and Herzegovina, who finished third in Group B. It’s a great game to start things off in the win-or-go-home bracket.

If you were wondering how and why we are playing Bosnia, the match came from FIFA’s third place matchup. The 2026 World Cup has 48 teams, the knockout stage includes not only the 12 team winners and 12 runners-up, but also the top eight third-place finishers. Ahead of the tournament, FIFA created a chart with some 495 combinations that determine which third-placed teams face each team’s winner based on where those teams come from. When the group stage ended, Bosnia and Herzegovina was the third-place team given the United States’ spot in the bracket, making it the USMNT’s Round of 32 opponent. *Download ‘The More You Know’ music*

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Round 16

Looking ahead to the round of 16, the US could face Belgium on July 6 in Seattle. Belgium won Group G and, notably, entered the tournament ranked ninth in the FIFA/Coca-Cola Men’s World Ranking. Their round of 32 opponents are unknown and could include teams like South Korea, Senegal, Algeria, or Austria.

Importantly, Belgium had already beaten the US 5-2 in a friendly in March, making it an even more interesting match. The brackets were also shaped by the Group B match-breakers – Belgium and Egypt both finished with five points, but Belgium progressed with the better goal difference.

Obviously, the USA would have liked Egypt. Belgium are a dangerous team with real scoring potential. The red, white and blue will need to play their best game to reach the quarterfinals.

United States fans celebrate after a goal against Turkey in the second half of the 2026 FIFA World Cup match at Los Angeles Stadium in Inglewood on June 25, 2026. (Keith Birmingham/Pasadena Star-News)

The final

If the USMNT were to match their 2002 run and make it to the quarterfinals, their potential opponents would be Spain and star Lamine Yamal, who won Group H. Spain is now the only team locked in that group, and will open the playoffs on July 2 against Group J, which will be either Algeria or Austria.

In the Spanish section of the bracket, the Round of 32 matchups in Group K and L could produce more strong contenders. The runners-up appear to be Colombia or Portugal from Group K, and Croatia or Ghana from Group L, depending on the final group results with England still able to influence the results depending on their final match on Saturday.

Because of that structure, the path to the quarterfinals is getting tougher in the United States. If the US makes it that far, the July 10 game in Los Angeles could face Spain, Colombia or Portugal — any of which could represent the toughest test of their tournament.

In short: If the US reaches the last eight, it could be staring down a European or South American heavyweight (especially Spain or Portugal). Doing this class can be fun in itself, but we’re not here to catch your feet, try your best and get participation medals.

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Spain’s Lamine Yamal celebrates scoring his first team goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group H match against Saudi Arabia at Atlanta Stadium in Atlanta, Ga., on June 21, 2026. (Patrick Smith/FIFA/Getty Images)

Semi-finalist

The USMNT has reached the semifinals of the World Cup once before, back in 1930, in the first-ever 13-team tournament. Although the format was very different at the time, it still stands as the deepest run in US men’s World Cup history.

In the expanded 2026 format, reaching the semi-finals will require winning three straight playoff games, which may include defeating top national teams as I mentioned.

If the US makes it this far, the semifinals will be played on July 14 at AT&T Stadium (Dallas Stadium) in Arlington. Potential opponents on the other side of the bracket include the strongest teams in world football, including France and Germany, who have won six World Cup titles together. Other potential challengers include the Netherlands, three-time World Cup runners-up to the US in 2022, as well as Paraguay, Sweden, Morocco and Canada.

In short: a run to the semifinals will likely require the US to defeat at least one or more world powers, making it a difficult and historic milestone in the program’s history. We’re talking about a “Miracle 2.0” type of running here.

Germany midfielder Aleksandar Pavlović challenges the ball from United States forward Christian Pulisic in the first half of an international friendly soccer match in Chicago on June 6, 2026. (Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press)

The finals of the World Cup

If the USMNT were to reach the finals of the World Cup, it would be on July 19 at MetLife Stadium, which has been renamed the New York New Jersey Stadium by FIFA for the tournament. This will represent the most important moment in the history of American football, especially as a home final in front of a national crowd and international attention.

However, the approach on the other side of the bracket is full of traditional strengths. Brazil (five-time champions), Argentina (three-time winners and holders) and Mexico are already confirmed in that part of the draw. England and Portugal could also join them depending on how the final group results shake out.

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In other words, a potential U.S. final will likely pit against the giants of the sport’s history, making the all-out run one of the toughest runs in World Cup history.

So I have one question: “Do you believe in miracles?!”