Oil recently rose above $100 a barrel on the Brent benchmark—the first time it has traded there in two months.
The move comes after the Houthis said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, with Saudi authorities confirming that one vessel was hit and set on fire. The US-Iran standoff has also recently collapsed. Together, those two events fueled fears of a broader supply disruption.
At the same time, refiners are posting some of the widest margins in decades and data centers are burning through diesel and grid capacity faster than utilities can replace them.
Two forces are colliding in the energy sector right now, and it’s not going away anytime soon.
The first is the escalating conflict in Iran, which has recently returned to the polls three weeks after a temporary suspension. The second is the magnitude of the energy demand tied to AI infrastructure, a structure that the United States is not yet fully prepared for.
Stansberry Research’s Dan Ferris and InvestorPlace’s Luke Lango cover the area closely. Their reading points to four stocks that are set to continue to gain.
Refiners Print Money, Create New Skills
Valero Energy today
Valero Energy
Starting at 10:15 AM Eastern
- 52 week interval
- $130.78
▼
$320.24
- Dividend Yield
- 1.60%
- The P/E ratio
- 21.81
- Target Value
- $266.71
The clear disclosure of the issue of Iran-driven oil shows the tightening of restrictions.
The 3:2:1 crack spread, the profit from converting three barrels of crude into two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of diesel, increased to $70 a barrel. That is a level not seen in recent history.
Here’s why it matters: building a new refinery in the United States is close to impossible.
Permit hurdles have stalled proposed projects for years, and no major energy company has tried to pursue green space in decades. Three refineries have closed in the past year alone, and existing capacity continues to dwindle as demand for diesel rises.
Company Valero Energy Corporation NYSE: VLO and Marathon Petroleum Corporation NYSE: MPC each uses an estimated 3 million barrels per day of capacity.
Marathon Petroleum Today
Marathon Petroleum
Starting at 10:16 AM Eastern
- 52 week interval
- $158.00
▼
$326.92
- Dividend Yield
- 1.30%
- The P/E ratio
- 20.08
- Target Value
- $298.69
Both stocks are up 80% to 90% year to date, a run that has some investors nervous about chasing 52-week highs.
But growth here does not come from expansion; it comes with income elsewhere.
With no new capacity to build, both companies are in a position to record cash flow from acquisitions and dividends rather than reinvestment. That volatility tends to persist as long as the margin back holds.
The risk is a real, permanent downturn that pulls oil back to pre-war levels and squeezes that spread. That has already failed once this year. The good thing is that even a partial decision will not reverse the filter’s lack of profit-making power.
GE Vernova Solves Big Grid Bottleneck
GE Vernova Today
Starting at 10:16 AM Eastern
- 52 week interval
- $530.16
▼
$1,195.94
- Dividend Yield
- 0.21%
- The P/E ratio
- 27.70
- Target Value
- $1,133.15
If oil is Iran’s story, power plants are AI’s story.
Company GE Vernova Inc. NYSE: GEV makes turbines, transformers and grid hardware that convert electricity into something a data center can use. Demand exceeds what the company can produce.
The numbers back it up. In Q1, GE Vernova booked $2.4 billion in data center equipment orders in its Electrical Installation segment, above the 2025 total for that segment. Companywide orders rose 71% organically to $18.3 billion, while backlog reached $163 billion. Momentum accelerated in Q2, with orders up 88% organically to $24.2 billion and backlog rising to $176 billion. This is not a story built on narrative. It’s a backlog that’s growing faster than the company can handle.
GE Vernova reported Q2 earnings on July 22, with revenue of $11.1 billion beating the consensus estimate of $10.79 billion but earnings per share of $2.47 falling short of forecasts of $3.17. Shares fell after the report as investors weighed the company’s strong demand and lagging job growth against the risks of execution and continued losses in the air segment.
The long-term case hinges on expanding margins alongside continued revenue growth. Management now expects 2026 revenue of $45.5 billion to $46.5 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12% to 14%. If GE Vernova continues to turn its backlog into revenue, that combination could support steady earnings growth, although valuation and issuance risks remain.
Ecovyst Coordinates Refining Limits on Copper Trading
Ecovyst Today
Starting at 10:16 AM Eastern
- 52 week interval
- $7.41
▼
$15.09
- Target Value
- $13.90
The fourth term combines both catalysts in a way that many investors have not yet connected.
Company Ecovyst Inc. NYSE: ECVT is North America’s largest producer of sulfuric acid. What chemical refiners rely on is to produce alkylate, a low-sulfur, high-octane component required for almost all US gasoline.
About half of Ecovyst’s revenue comes from that recycling business, where it has a market share of more than 50% and owns the entire supply chain, from tankers to processing plants. Another is virgin sulfuric acid, which is widely used in copper mining. Low-grade metal is increasingly required by chemists to extract usable metal, and demand for copper is tied directly to AI buildout. That gives this side of the business room to expand through acquisitions and organic growth.
Ecovyst has retreated nearly 9% in the past three months, as earnings growth has picked up. That gives investors a low entry point in a name that’s still rising year-over-year.
2 Catalysts, 1 Rotation
Oil will not return to pre-war levels anytime soon. AI power building is also not slowing down. Both catalysts point in the same direction: companies turning deficits into cash, rather than companies waiting for growth that has yet to materialize.
That’s the thread that runs through all four words, and it’s the same rotation that Ferris and Lango focus on in their joint research on where this capital is headed next.
Valero and Marathon can’t expand into power, so the money goes directly to shareholders. GE Vernova can’t build wind turbines fast enough to clear orders from its books. Ecovyst sits at the intersection of both business functions, tied to refining margins on the one hand and copper demand on the other.
None of it depends on continuous oil production or the use of AI to accelerate from here. It just takes both trends to hold almost where they are.
Always focus on where the money actually flows. That is what keeps this power trade active in the second half of the year.
Before you consider the GE Vernova, you’ll want to hear this.
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With the proliferation of data centers and electric vehicles, the power grid will become even more complex. Download this report to learn how energy stocks can play a role in your portfolio as global energy demand continues to grow.
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