The top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (3-0) look to be the lone seed in the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs when they visit the 8-seed Phoenix Suns (0-3) in Game 4 on Monday.
Oklahoma City has completely dominated Phoenix in this series: The Thunder has a +20.0 goal margin and wins all four “points.”
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I dirty dealer and reigning NBA MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, He has been tearing up the Suns. Shai is averaging 34.7 points on 54.1% shooting and 8.0 assists this series and has gotten to the foul line 38 times.
Oklahoma City Thunder All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets the edge against the Phoenix Suns in Game 3 of their first-round series in the 2026 NBA Playoffs. (Ross D. Franklin/AP)
However, as we saw Sunday with the Kevin Durant-less Houston Rockets against the Los Angeles Lakers, it’s hard to sweep a team, no matter how well they play in the series or who is on their injury report.
Like Houston this past weekend, Phoenix will show professional pride and play OKC hard in Game 4. I’m not saying the Suns will prevent a sweep. But they will cover the spread. Or at least I bet so.
Best bet: Phoenix Suns +10.5
It is impossible to make a statistical argument for Phoenix here. Oklahoma City outshines the Sun in every way.
Oklahoma City Thunder big Chet Holmgren dunks on Phoenix Suns SG Jalen Green in Game 2 of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs. (Kyle Phillips/AP)
However, about 90% of the action is on the Thunder at the time of writing, per Pregame.com. While betting splits and “market exhaustion” can be an extreme handicapping angle, I’d rather be on the same side as the sportsbooks than the public.
AYO DOSUNMU’S 43-POINT STRIKE COULD CONTINUE AGAIN AS THE TIMBERWOLVES TRY TO FINISH THE GAME 5 POINTS.
Also, OKC is missing its second-leading scorer, wing Jalen Williams, and Phoenix’s leading scorers are healthy. Suns wing Dillon Brooks, SG Jalen Green and five-year NBA All-Star Devin Booker all averaged 20+ points in the series. They just need a few role players to step up, and they can steal the game.
Phoenix Suns SG Devin Booker drives to the basket against the Oklahoma City Thunder during Game 3 of their first round series in the 2026 Western Conference Playoffs. (Photos by Rick Scuteri-Imagn)
Furthermore, if the refs swallow their whistles and don’t send Gilgeous-Alexander to the charity stripe every time he fumbles, it will be much harder for OKC to shut out Phoenix.
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Again, most of this analysis is narrative based because there is just no basketball argument to bet the Sun on Monday. But sometimes strange things happen in sports, especially in the playoffs, and I feel that Phoenix keeps Game 4 closer than the market.
Prediction: Thunder 112, Suns 106
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