Q1 Earnings Miss, FCC Approval, and Aalyst Guidance in Focus

When BlueBird’s next-generation commercial aerospace communications satellites are launched into Earth orbit (LEO), the expectations for that company will be astronomical.

So when the space-based Broadband network provider AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS reported Q1 2026 results on Monday, May 11, investors were understandably underwhelmed by the bearish double-miss.

Ahead of the earnings call, which was held after the bell, ASTS gained about 6%. But after announcing a surprise miss on earnings and revenue, the stock sold off in after-hours trading as the market’s apparent disappointment resulted in losses of more than 13%.

Here’s what investors need to know about SpaceX’s rival going forward.

AST SpaceMobile’s Q1 Disappointment Drives Investors Back to Earth

Despite the company’s promising background, the space-based mobile provider posted Q1 earnings per share (EPS) of a negative 66 cents compared to analyst expectations of a negative 23 cents.

The EPS miss was AST SpaceMobile’s fifth in as many areas.

Revenue for the quarter also disappointed, with $14.74 million missing the consensus mark of $39.01 million per country mile. That was especially boosted given the company’s Q4 2025 revenue of $54.31 million versus expectations of $39.53 million.

Fortunately, the Q1 report was not without highlights. AST SpaceMobile reported a healthy balance sheet of approximately $3.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash as of March 31.

The company is in its early stages of revenue generation, but should be able to continue to scale seamlessly thanks to more than half a million production and operations space around the world. BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 are expected to be delivered within the month, and AST SpaceMobile is on a rollout with BlueBird 33. Eventually, the company plans to have 100 BlueBird satellites in its fleet.

In his earnings call comments, CEO Abel Avellan highlighted the company’s strategic upside of 95%, noting that it offers long-term profitability with its developer team growing significantly over the past few quarters.

AST SpaceMobile’s Volatility Is To Be Expected

The AST SpaceMobile has faced its fair share of setbacks this year. Launch delays and supply inefficiencies for Blue Origin have caused volatility in share prices. As a result, ASTS now carries a beta of 2.60, meaning it is more than two and a half times as volatile as the broader market.

But with higher betas comes higher risk-reward potential. Shortly after the BlueBird 7 LEO failure in late April, the stock rebounded during the week on news that the US Communications Commission had granted AST SpaceMobile commercial authorization to deliver direct-to-device, or D2D, mobile broadband communications from space across the United States.

That rally followed another in late February that sent ASTS shares soaring. In late February, the Midland, Texas-based firm struck a strategic partnership with Verizon Communications. NYSE: VZAT&T NYSE: TVodafone NASDAQ: VODreal estate investment trust American Tower NYSE: AMTGoogle—along with a handful of other technology and communications companies—has announced its first federal government contract.

According to the company’s report, AST SpaceMobile entered into an agreement with the United States Space Development Agency for the Europa Track 2 Commercial Solutions program as part of the “Hybrid Acquisition for proliferated Low-Earth Orbit (HALO) program,” with a total contract value of approximately $30 million.

So sales are nothing new to shareholders, many of whom have endured the ups and downs of buying and holding ASTS. Over the past year, while racking up gains of nearly 204%, the stock has seen gains as high as 315% while enduring at least 15 double-digit drawdowns.

After Big Money Miss, ASTS Gets Mixed Outlook

The good thing is that the company’s income is expected to continue to grow, which should lead to a decrease in income in the next year. Based on trailing 12-month EPS of $1.32, AST SpaceMobile’s earnings are expected to grow from 99 cents to less than 1 cent over the next four quarters.

Still, analysts are now understandably unanimous in their expectations. The stock’s 12-month price target is $82.51, indicating a potential upside of more than 15%. Meanwhile, AST SpaceMobile has a consensus Reduce rating based on the 10 analysts that are currently covering it.

Short interest of about 18%—or about 54 million shares of the 382 million shares outstanding—remains a short-term problem. However, long term, the smart money seems to be ASTS. Over the past 12 months, institutional buyers have poured nearly $3 billion into the stock, while outflows have totaled less than $500 million.

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