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With all the basketball deadlines going on, I seem to have forgotten about baseball. However, this is not the case. I’ve been keeping an eye on you, and we’ve collected money from a few bets I’ve made on the game recently. Today, I’m looking forward to the game between the Reds and the Pirates in Pittsburgh.
The Reds are one of the best teams in baseball, which is not something I expected to write about this season. They made the postseason last year, but considering the lack of movement in the offseason, I didn’t expect them to be good.
What really surprised the Reds was how well they played this season. Last year, there was no good road team. Those that were over .500, except for the Astros, made the postseason.
A Cincinnati Reds cap with a special logo is seen during a game against the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, July 3, 2021. Cincinnati defeated Chicago 3-2. (Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)
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Today, the Reds look to keep that success going with Rhett Lowder on the mound. On the year, Lowder is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He started the year six times, half at home and on the road. He has a lower ERA overall on the road than at home, allowing five earned over 17.1 innings. Four of those runs came in one game against the Marlins. The Pirates went 2-for-11 against Lowder in the drive.
The Pirates are better than last year, but they are not a successful team right now. They are hovering around .500 on the season, which is about what they did last year. The team still needs to find some hitting, but they are doing better than last year.
They had lost five straight games before this series, losing one to the Brewers and four to the Cardinals. Maybe it was just a bad stretch, or maybe it’s a sign of things to come. In those games, they allowed 35 runs and scored 18. That’s an average of seven allowed and 3.6.
Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Rhett Lowder pitches against the Detroit Tigers in the first inning at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, April 26, 2026. (Katie Stratman/Magn Photos)
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Carmen Mlodzinski is trying to get the Pirates back on track. On the year, he is 1-2 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He was at his best at home, but most of his chances came on the road. He pitches to a 1.69 ERA and has allowed just two earned runs over 10.2 innings. His solo home start saw him go six scoreless innings and allow two hits and two walks. In his career, he has allowed just three hits in 27 at-bats against the Reds.
We have two starters today who are in better shape. Mlodzinski was better at home, and Lowder was better on the road. These are still small sample sizes, but it’s a little encouraging. The way the Pirates have been bleeding makes me worry that the under will be toast. The Reds have been all over the place in terms of scoring and runs allowed.
Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski throws a pitch during a game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, on April 21, 2026. (Photos by Jerome Miron/Imagn)
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In this particular situation, I think it makes a lot of sense to restore the bottom. Both teams have been playing high-scoring games at the moment, but with these two bowlers, we should see a few more runs.
For more information on sports betting and games, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024
