2026 Cadillac Championship: The PGA TOUR’s best bet is to return to Trump National Doral

Maybe it was a political thing, but the PGA TOUR is returning to Trump National Doral’s The Blue Monster for the first time since 2016 this week 2026 Cadillac Championship. I don’t know what happened from 2016-25 that caused the TOUR to leave Doral, but I digress.

Still, despite being a “signature event” with a $20 million prize pool, several big names are not on the field this week, including World No. 2 Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Åberg, Robert MacIntyre and Patrick Cantlay.

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Doral’s Blue Monster is one of golf’s most demanding courses. A par-72 with 7,739 yards, the Blue Monster is a large-scale test, famous for its treacherous green structures, deep bends and water hazards throughout.

That said, I gave 2.64 units (u) to the outrights in the Cadillac Championship, and another 2.5u to the top 10 with ties, all with Kalshi. Without further ado, here are mine horses on the course again One-and-done choose for the Blue Monster.

2026 Cadillac Championship Bet Slip

The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. It can be changed.

• Collin Morikawa +2127 (0.94u) and top-10 tied +181 (1u)
• Sam Burns +3243 (0.62u) and top-10 tied +262 (0.75u)
• Hideki Matsuyama +4000 (0.5u) and top-10 tied +252 (0.75u)
• Adam Scott +4400 (0.45u)
• Daniel Berger +15284 (0.13u)

Collin Morikawa

If he was 100%, Collin would have the same odds as the second betting favorite, Cameron Young (+1200 ish). Morikawa withdrew from THE PLAYERS Championship last month after his first hole and has been playing injured ever since.

However, I’m willing to gamble on Collin’s life because he’s the number one of all my Cadillac models, and he finished T7 at The Masters and T4 at the RBC Heritage in his last two appearances, while clearly playing through injury.

Prior to that, Morikawa won the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, tied for seventh at The Genesis Invitational and finished fifth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, similar to Doral.

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And, with the PGA Championship in two weeks, Collin wouldn’t be playing this week if he thought he might hurt himself. He is one of the most accurate drivers in golf and leads the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP) this year, golf’s most predictive statistic.

Sam Burns

Doral is one of the longest courses on TOUR with Bermudagrass greens, and Burns is 11th on the course in Ball Speed ​​over the past three months and second in SG: He’s putting over his last 50 rounds at Bermuda, according to Betsperts Golf.

Because he hits the ball hard and is ranked in the top three in the world, Burns plays well on long, difficult golf courses with hard fairways. He was in contention for the final round at the 2025 US Open and The Masters this year, finishing T7 in both.

Burns has good lead form with a T13 at THE PLAYERS, T21 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, the aforementioned T7 at The Masters and T16 at the RBC Heritage in his previous four starts. He earned strokes with his irons and driver in three of those four tournaments, and on the greens in all four.

Hideki Matsuyama

This is just a great price for my favorite golfer, who is a guaranteed winner. Hideki is below several guys on the seriousness board with very little “win equity”.

Hideki Matsuyama plays a shot from the bunker during the second round of the 2026 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia. (Katie Goodale/Magn Photos)

Many former Masters champions have played well at Doral, and Matsuyama won the green jacket in 2021. Riviera Country Club, host of The Genesis, is another crossover course to Doral, and Hideki won The Genesis in 2023.

Matsuyama won the 2023 FedExCup St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, another course with Bermuda greens and plenty of water hazards. His weakest club in the bag is the driver, but Hideki is one of the best on TOUR with his long irons, has a world-class short game, and is doing well this season.

Adam Scott

The Aussie was the last champion at Doral, winning the 2016 WGC-Cadillac Championship. But, I swear, that’s not why Scott is on my betting card this year.

Adam Scott celebrates with the Gene Sarazen Cup after winning the 2016 WGC-Cadillac Championship at Trump National Doral’s Blue Monster course in Miami. (John David Mercer/USA TODAY Sports)

Instead, the 45-year-old hits the ball faster than most guns on the PGA TOUR. In fact, he is sixth in the league in Ball Speed ​​over the past three months, according to Betsperts Golf.

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Meanwhile, Scott ranks third on TOUR this season in SG:APP, fourth in approach shots from 200+ yards and 10th in 5-pointers. There are a ton of long shots at Doral, and you need to hit a par 5 to win here.

Daniel Berger

Also, Bay Hill is a comp course to Doral, and Berger lost to Akshay Bhatia in a playoff at the Arnold Palmer. It was a heartbreaking loss for Berger, so I’m discounting his poor performances in his last three games due to the big odds and the evenness of the course.

Berger a A Florida native who putsts well in the Bermuda cold, and is one of the best golfers on TOUR. Two of his four career PGA TOUR wins at the St. Jude in 2016-17, and Berger has several top 10s in Florida and similar courses.

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Cadillac Championship 2026 ‘One-and-Done Choice’: Collin Morikawa

2026 Mayo Cup season standings: 3,814 for $3,055,975

Although he is the third betting favorite, this is a “controversial game”. Only 47% of entrants remain with Morikawa. Collin suffered a head injury. Since the Blue Monster is bigger, and not that far away, people will choose bombs instead.

However, Morikawa is the best golfer in the world right now and is a two-time major champion, winner of the toughest courses. I’d rather use Collin in this shortened camp while he’s in good form than force him elsewhere.

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