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Trump’s blockade could force Iran to dump oil in the Gulf, experts say

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Satellite imagery has revealed a suspected oil spill near Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub, in what experts say could be evidence that Tehran’s oil infrastructure is faltering under increasing US pressure.

The bright images, seen in Copernicus Sentinel satellite images between Wednesday and Friday, covered about 45 square kilometers in the west of the island, according to analysts cited by Reuters.

The incident comes as a possible sign that Trump’s maritime pressure campaign is achieving one of its main goals: to overwhelm Iran’s export program to the point where Tehran can no longer move or store crude fast enough to keep production running.

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A suspected spill near Iran’s largest oil complex raises concerns that increased US pressure is exceeding Tehran’s ability to store or export pollution, which could force dangerous workarounds with environmental consequences in the Gulf.

The bright images, seen in Copernicus Sentinel satellite images between Wednesday and Friday, covered about 45 square kilometers in the west of the island, according to analysts cited by Reuters. (Reuters)

“Right now I see two plausible explanations, and they’re not the same,” Miad Maleki, an expert on Iran sanctions and energy at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.

“One is working: they didn’t slow down the drilling fast enough compared to their actual capacity on the beach and counted too much on the empty tanks that were sliding into the blockage,” he said.

“Now we’ve improperly brought crude into the export system, there’s more oil at or near the terminals than they can load, and the ‘solution’ is to push some of that excess into the water.”

Maleki said another possible explanation is equipment failure related to Iran’s use of aging tanks as floating storage or sanctions carriers.

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An oil slick is seen near Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf

A suspected oil spill that covered dozens of square kilometers of sea near Iran’s largest oil field on Kharg Island was seen in satellite imagery this week. (European Union/Copernicus Sentinel-2 via Reuters)

“They’ve pulled the old, side-by-side tons to work as floating storage or sanctions carriers, and some of those retired or poorly maintained docks are now leaking,” he said.

“Either way, the general value is the same – storage and output capacity are not consistent with upstream output, and the Gulf is paying the price for that mismatch.”

The incident comes as the Trump administration continues to press its “Economic Fury” campaign against Iran, including the imposition of sanctions and an increase in US military forces near the Strait of Hormuz aimed at limiting Iran’s oil exports.

Before the conflict, Iran was exporting about 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, most of it to China. Analysts say the blockade and the threat of sanctions against shipping companies and financial institutions have made it more difficult for Tehran to withdraw from Kharg Island.

Reuters reported that the woman was seen “gray and white” in the west of the 8 km long island.

Leon Moreland, a researcher at the Conflict and Environment Observatory, told Reuters that the material “appears to be associated with oil,” and Louis Goddard, founder of the Consultancy Desk, said it would be the largest spill since the US-Israeli war with Iran began nearly 70 days ago.

Kharg Island handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports and has become a critical point in the Trump administration’s efforts to cut off a major source of revenue for the regime during the ongoing war.

Energy analysts say Iran is now facing a dangerous crisis. If Iran can’t export oil or find more storage capacity, it could be forced to shut down wells, risk long-term damage to oil fields, or dump excess pollution in ways that could cause environmental collapse across the Gulf.

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A cargo ship sailing in the Persian Gulf is heading for the Strait of Hormuz

A cargo ship sails through the Persian Gulf towards the Strait of Hormuz on April 22, 2026. (AP Photo)

“They have already reduced emissions. In the case of a real ban, the pressure is not production at the source, not being able to load tanks at the export locations,” said Maleki.

“When the onshore storage is close to capacity, the output must be cut to match the rest of the house or the wells are shut down,” he added. “In the case of Iran, that’s about 13 days.”

Environmental impacts are also raising alarm across the Gulf.

Windward, a maritime intelligence firm, estimated that the slick was moving southeast at about 2 kilometers per hour and warned that it could reach Qatar’s economic zone in a few days and could drift into the United Arab Emirates within two weeks.

The Gulf’s desalination infrastructure, relied on by millions across the region, remains highly vulnerable to major oil spill events.

This spill is also taking place amid military conflicts in the Gulf. The war has shut down hundreds of vessels in the region and caused the biggest global disruption of crude and liquefied natural gas in recent years.

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An oil tanker near the terminal on Kharg Island in Iran

An oil tanker is seen near an oil storage facility on Kharg Island, Iran, as US officials and analysts consider that taking the island could have a major impact on Iran’s oil exports. (Ali Mohammadi/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Iranian authorities have not publicly commented on the suspected spill or its possible causes.

Fox News Digital has reached out to Iran’s mission to the UN for comment.

Reuters contributed to this report.

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