Trump’s Iran deal ends the ceasefire, but achieving lasting peace is difficult

More than two decades ago, as a Pentagon strategist in the run-up to the 2003 Iraq War, I found myself asking a question that received much less attention than troop movements, airstrikes or attack plans: What happens after the first victory?

Military planners focused on defeating Saddam Hussein’s regime. I was always worried about what was going to happen next. Even with access to high-level planning discussions and classified assessments, I believed that too many assumptions had been made about the peace that should come after the cessation of hostilities.

That same question came back to me on Sunday when President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States and Iran had reached an agreement to end nearly four months of war and that he was authorizing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US military embargo. An official signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday, June 19, in Geneva, with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif serving as host.

The guns are silent. The strategists returned to the table. Oil futures fell 4% and stock markets rallied on the news. Those advances should not be dismissed.

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But history teaches us that ending war and achieving lasting peace are not the same thing.

The wind at his back – for now

Trump deserves credit for bringing this controversy to this point. He was supposed to arrive in Evian-les-Bains today, June 15, for the G7 summit that will be held June 15-17 with real momentum. Last year, Canada left the G7 early due to growing conflict. This year he comes after announcing its end.

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Economic conditions were very difficult. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since late February, choking off nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply, 20 million barrels per day. Inflation in the US reached 4.2% in May, the highest level in three years, driven almost entirely by the energy shock the Iran shutdown produced.

The International Maritime Organization has confirmed at least 46 attacks on international vessels in and around Hormuz since the conflict began. Reopening the strait is the fastest economic relief available.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he welcomed the agreement that had been reached and that it must be implemented “resolutely.” He stressed, “The Strait of Hormuz must be opened for free movement forever and without restrictions” and said that Iran must “definitely” stop its nuclear weapons programs. Even the skeptic supporters of the military campaign cannot deny its achievements.

Trump organized bilateral meetings in the G7 with Macron and the leaders of Egypt, Qatar, the UAE and India, regional partners whose peaceful cooperation made this agreement possible. Qatar and Pakistan acted as the main mediators; Saudi Arabia has provided significant support. That alliance is a real diplomatic success.

A pause is not a silence

Yet the American people should see this deal for what it really is: a temporary moratorium.

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That is not a criticism. A strategic pause may be just what is needed at this time. But standing still is not the solution.

Trump deserves credit for bringing this controversy to this point.

The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) extends the ceasefire for 60 days, including in Lebanon, where nuclear talks will take place. A senior administration official has confirmed that Iran has committed “forever to never acquiring or developing nuclear weapons,” a pledge that, if confirmed and enforced, would go beyond what was achieved by the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Relief from sanctions is consistent with compliance. Those words on paper are strong.

The ink was dry before the contradiction appeared. Iranian media are arguing with US officials on the terms of Hormuz, saying Iran has the right to charge for travel. The international shipping industry warned that it “still considers it too risky for ships to start moving” through the strait despite the announced agreement. The original text of the MOU is closely held; European allies told CNN that they are working on official talks rather than the document itself.

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Lebanon’s size is an immediate problem. Israel was not participating in the negotiations. Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on Monday that the IDF will not withdraw from Lebanon, Syria or Gaza under any terms of the agreement, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly told Trump directly that Israel does not see itself bound by the Lebanese provisions. Hezbollah shot down drones in northern Israel on Sunday as the deal was announced.

The agreement does not solve the problem. It pauses the problem and creates an opportunity to solve it.

Benchmarks are tough

ANY NEW DEAL WITH IRAN MUST BE JUDGED BY RESULTS, NOT VICTORY-LAP RHETORIC.

What should Americans watch?

First, does Hormuz remain truly open, not just open, but trusted by commercial vessels and transported by tankers in normal volume? Iran’s contradictory statements about toll roads, the need to remove mines, and the transportation industry’s reluctance to resume transportation all suggest that the reopening will be contested.

Second, does Iran accept affirmative, permanent limits on its nuclear activities, guaranteed by the withdrawal of advanced infrastructure and full inspector access? Trump said on Saturday the deal would end Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. His announcement on Sunday made no mention of the nuclear program. That gap is important.

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Third, is regional violence really decreasing, or is it shifting from one country to another? Israel’s refusal to honor Lebanon’s provisions is the kind of difference that has derailed agreements in the past.

Fourth, does this agreement survive the 60-day window and produce a second binding agreement? Most ceasefires last for weeks. Very few produce permanent residences. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which Tehran ultimately rejected, is a case in point. Hope is worth it. Naïveté does not exist.

An excavator removes debris from the site of a strike that, according to a security official at the scene, destroyed part of the Khorasaniha Synagogue and nearby residential buildings in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, April 7, 2026. (Francisco Seco/AP Photo)

A measure of success

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Success is not measured by a signing event in Geneva, a positive market reaction, or a post on Truth Social. Success is measured by whether the root causes of conflict are resolved in ways that reduce the likelihood of future war.

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As I learned during my years at the Pentagon, military campaigns can have dramatic results. The most difficult challenge is always to protect the next peace. President Dwight D. Eisenhower understood this after the Korean War. We learned the hard way after taking Baghdad in April.

President Trump can finally look back on this deal as one of his most important foreign policy achievements. I hope he can.

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He would have arrived at the G7 today with the wind behind him. The question that will define his legacy is not whether he ended up being shot. Whether the construction over the next 60 days proves stronger than Tehran’s ambitions, Israel’s independent judgment, and the region’s long history of swallowing diplomatic structures whole.

The shooting may stop. The real test begins.

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