America’s beef shortage is worsening as year-round border closures keep Mexican cattle out of the country, pushing beef prices to record highs, stressing processors, and shifting jobs, investments and profits south of the border. The shutdown was introduced to stop the spread of the New World screwworm, but is now exposing weaknesses in the entire food supply chain that supports thousands of workers and affects household budgets across the country.
The latest warning sign came this week when the first confirmed case of screwworm in Texas in 60 years was found on a cattle ranch, fueling concerns that restrictions on livestock sales may last longer than many producers expected. For businesses built around the transportation, feeding and processing of cattle, uncertainty causes increased costs. In West Texas, Lubbock Feeders, a 70-year-old feed plant that once relied heavily on Mexican cattle, says it will now close after seeing its pipeline dry up.
Beyond the farm world, the results are hard to miss. Before the ban, the United States imported more than a million cattle annually from Mexico, representing about 4% to 5% of the animals entering the US beef production system. Those cattle supported a wide range of economic activities, from truck drivers and feeders to processing plants and rural communities. Since those animals live in Mexico, most of that value chain goes with them.
For consumers, the impact is already being felt at the supermarket. Livestock herds fell to their lowest level in nearly 75 years, helping drive beef prices to record highs at a time when many households are still struggling with the high cost of living. Food inflation may have cooled off from the surface, but beef is becoming one of the clearest examples of how supply disruptions can continue to eat into the cost of living long after the initial shock.
Congestion is also widespread in the processing sector. Tyson Foods has scaled back operations at a major Texas cattle ranch and permanently closed a major Nebraska plant, eliminating thousands of jobs as processors grapple with tight cattle supplies and rising costs. Some major meat retailers have reported losses as cattle prices continue to outpace gains in beef prices, leaving companies with few options to maintain profits.
While US operators struggle with shortages, Mexican producers are expanding. Ranchers who once shipped live cattle north are investing in feedlots, slaughterhouses and processing facilities, allowing them to export high-value beef products. Mexican beef exports to the United States jumped 23 percent during the first four months of 2026, while regional authorities continue to invest more in processing capacity aimed at supporting future growth.
Few ranchers seem eager to expand despite record beef prices. Drought remains a threat, feed costs are high, and producers have little hope that today’s limit will be in place by the time large herds reach the market. Others reduce herd sizes instead, while processors continue to operate below optimal capacity. What was initially considered a short-term disruption is beginning to influence long-term business decisions across the industry.
If the border remains closed, it becomes even more difficult to view this problem as a lack of livestock. The U.S. still faces shrinking herds, tight supplies and rising costs, while Mexico continues to build the infrastructure needed to capture the sector’s increased profits.
For paying customers record the values and communities tied to the beef trade, concerns are hard to dismiss. Each month the border remains closed gives Mexico more time to increase capacity while the US cattle industry operates with fewer animals, fewer workers and less room for error.
