Why betting the Thunder -9.5 against the Suns feels like a safe play in a losing series

For the most part, we saw a lot of good basketball in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.

There are very few series that have the power to become sweepers. However, one series that has been tough is the one between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Phoenix Suns. Sports betting will always be fun, though, which is why we’re going to bet this time.

The Thunder are the best team in the league, and will be for years to come. They have the league’s MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who will receive his second this season. (Side note, if you had to bet on MVP awards for his career, I’d take less than 2.5; the narrative surrounding him has already shifted to him being a dirty villain and not as impressive as he is).

They have the best secondary option in the league in Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren has yet to reach his prime.

There are a lot of good players on this list, and they have a lot of money left over. The only thing that could really stop them is probably the salary cap. Williams and Holmgren will be big players, and Gilgeous-Alexander makes ridiculous money. Apart from those three, the team has a lot of very good players. Also, most of those players know their roles, which gives Oklahoma City a lot of success.

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The Phoenix Suns have had problems for years with depth. They are focused on the hope that a combination of big names can lead them to where they want to go. However, it was unsuccessful. This season, they managed to reach 45 victories. Unfortunately, it was good enough for the 8th seed, and that gave them a date with the Thunder. It feels like this Suns team is much better, but at least there is more hope than there has been in the last few seasons.

Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker drives past Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort during the first half of Game 2 in the first round of the NBA playoffs in Oklahoma City on April 22, 2026. (Kyle Phillips/AP)

Mark Williams was out for the last game, and if he can’t get going here, the Suns’ interior presence will be in serious jeopardy. Dillon Brooks is still a bit of a power forward at just 6’7.” Can the Suns steal a game when they’re not at full strength? Well, they’ve had enough trouble even with everyone available. Devin Booker and Brooks have been great, and Jalen Green has helped, but stopping the Thunder is like trying to stop a freight train.

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Unfortunately for Phoenix, there isn’t much that can be done to win the game. I’m not saying it won’t happen, but they know they’re playing to make this a five-game series instead of a four-game series. They took the best shot in the last game and hung with the Thunder for half of the game. It was a close game this time, with the Thunder winning by just 13 points. Most of it came when the Thunder stopped caring in the fourth quarter.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander drives past Phoenix Suns guard Jalen Green in the second half of Game 2 of the first round of the NBA playoffs in Oklahoma City on April 22, 2026. (Kyle Phillips/AP)

The Sun led by 10 in the fourth, but the Thunder led by 26 points to one point. In seven games Oklahoma City won by an average of 25.6 points. They lost two games in the regular season against Phoenix. The Playoffs are a different animal, though. Heaven does not want to mess around. They will win this one by double digits and, I give OKC -9.5

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